"Long Neptune" reached Novorossiysk: how much does the Russian Federation lose due to accurate Ukrainian missiles

The Sheskharis transshipment complex in the port of Novorossiysk was the target of the attack. This is the largest element of Russia's Black Sea export infrastructure. Its history begins in the 1960s, when the USSR was building an "exit to the sea" for Siberian and Volga oil. The first tanker was loaded here in October 1964, and already in the 1990s, the annual transshipment volume exceeded 50 million tons. According to industry sources, 3.

22 million tons of crude oil were shipped through Novorossiysk in October this year. On average, "Sheskharis" loads 35-40 large tankers every month. Today, a significant part of Transneft's pipeline flows pass through Sheskharis, in particular the Tikhoretsk - Novorossiysk and Kropotkin - Novorossiysk branches. The terminal has dozens of tanks and more than 90 kilometers of process pipelines capable of working with a load of more than 1 million barrels per day.

Geographically, the facility occupies the main part of the Tsemes Bay, a narrow deep-water corridor that makes it possible to receive tankers with a deadweight of up to 250,000 tons and a draft of 18-19 meters. It is this depth that makes Novorossiysk unique: other Black Sea ports of the Russian Federation, in particular Tuapse or the Caucasus, cannot receive ships of this class.

So, in the overall balance of Russian maritime exports, this amounts to 20%, which makes Novorossiysk one of the 3 largest export hubs of the Russian Federation, along with Primorsk and Ust-Luga. The operator of "Sheskharis" is the "Transneft" structure, and a significant part of the cargo flows is formed by "Rosneft". Logistically, the port is critically dependent on the uninterrupted operation of the pipeline system, which has no full-fledged backups in the region.

The geopolitical aspect is also important. Export infrastructure of Novorossiysk is used not only by Russia. Behind the terminal is a separate Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) complex serving Kazakhstan. Approximately 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports go through the CPC system to Novorossiysk. In recent years, Kazakhstan has been actively trying to diversify routes — via Baku, Tbilisi, Turkish Ceyhan and Caspian ports — but, unfortunately, dependence on Novorossiysk remains structural.

Today, the consequences of the attack are already visible: "Transneft" was forced to temporarily stop pumping oil to the port, which indirectly confirms the seriousness of the damage. And this already means immediate economic losses. How much does Russia lose in money? If we consider that the terminal processes up to 1 million barrels per day, then each day of downtime costs approximately $60 million in lost exports.

So, in a week it can accumulate up to 350-400 million dollars, depending on the pace of repairs, tanker schedules and loading queues. The markets reacted immediately. Brent prices increased by 1. 97 percent, and US WTI - by 2. 13 percent. Analysts at UBS and Sparta Commodities noted that the risks of sustained supply disruptions are growing as attacks on Novorossiysk have been repeated for several months and the port is operating "on the verge of overload".

Although it is unlikely that there is an influence of only one factor here, perhaps there is also a reaction to a possible US attack on Venezuela. Previous failures were associated with storms, and now - with impacts. The market reacts not so much to a physical drop in supply as to growing uncertainty regarding the stability of exports from the Black Sea. And given the growth of oil production in the world, it is unlikely that this increase in prices will be sustainable.

The missile strike highlights the instability of Novorossiysk for those buyers who have not joined the sanctions against Russia. After all, if moral arguments regarding the inadmissibility of financing Russian aggression are not enough, then logistical ones are added. Oil ordered by Indians and Turks may simply not arrive. So it is logical to think about other sources, if not for ethical, then at least for pragmatic reasons.