It is worth waiting for a new counter -offensive: Ukraine should take advantage of Putin's mistake - isw

Therefore, Russian troops begin a new offensive in Donetsk region. Most likely, offensive operations there are activated in the coming weeks with the arrival of additional mobilized servicemen, along with the forces derived from Kherson. "The Ukrainian forces in the area will be in a difficult situation, and Kiev will probably have to distract troops to protect against the restored offenses of Russia," the ISW report said.

- Russians are unlikely that over time they can capture Bakhmut with a huge price. Analysts say that Russian forces are a mixture of regular troops, mobilized, Wagner PVC, Bars formation, LDNR's militia detachments, Chechen detachments Ramzan Kadyrov and Volunteer Battalions. Only in the number.

- It is extremely unlikely that Surovik will be able to turn it into force capable of leading a large -scale offensive mechanized maneuverable war, especially does not spend (or he is not allowed) time to create a coherent shock group before throwing it in the attack. " Most likely, in the next few months to force the enemy to stop near the starting points. At the same time, the forces released after the Kherson operation can be used for both defensive and counter -offensive operations.

The Armed Forces will probably send some of the combat power or to strengthen the counter -offshore. , which lasts in the Luhansk region, or to start a new counter-offensive in other areas. Therefore, termination or slowing of hostilities in the next few months is unlikely. Analysts noted. - Putin must admit that he needs to give his strength time to recover. He should want to prevent Ukrainians from gaining the emotional lift of their recent victories.

The fact that Putin continues to push his generals to the offensive in these circumstances is a serious mistake from a military point of view, most likely, this is due to those psychological factors that were primarily prompted by Putin to give an invasion order, but also more because of Putin's need your rigidity. Ukraine and her supporters should take advantage of Putin's mistake, continuing the counter -offensive in conditions much more favorable to Kiev than for Moscow.

"Earlier, the Armed Forces reported that fierce battles were ongoing in Bakhmut, in which the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are lost daily killed from 70 to 100 servicemen. that the Armed Forces under Bakhmut destroyed the Mi-8 helicopter, which was previously armed with the Army of Belarus. It was later revealed that the liquidated unit of combat aviation belonged to the private military company "Wagner", which was actively involved in the battles in the Donbass.