Ukraine develops alternative and asymmetrical ways to confront the Russian Federation - isw

According to estimates of reconnaissance management of the Pentagon (DIA), the Armed Forces "probably" retains opportunities for defense operations in Ukraine, but are not capable of large -scale counter -attack for at least the next six months. But, according to ISW, Russian troops also cannot guarantee a victory in the war through a separate decisive operation.

Recent assessments of US intelligence emphasize the efforts of Ukraine aimed at developing alternative and asymmetrical opportunities against the background of Russian advantage in living strength and equipment, and indicate Ukraine's dependence on Western military assistance. About it writes "Institute of War Study" in the summary of August 21. Estimates of American reconnaissance are largely converging from open sources.

According to the estimates of the US Defense Ministry (DIA), the recent military assistance of Ukraine "almost certainly" will not be enough to help overcome the Russian artillery advantage of about 10,000 daily shots.

"Destroying Russian shelling and blows corrected bombs, apparently, underlie the theory of the Kremlin's victory in Ukraine, according to which Russian forces can continue a slow, grueling offensive, destroy Ukrainian settlements completely, regardless of losses in living force," - said analytics. According to them, the Russian command proceeds from the assumption that Russian troops can deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to challenge the initiative throughout the theater of hostilities.

Ukrainian forces, on the contrary, have demonstrated the ability to develop and use alternative and asymmetric approaches: long -range UAVs are used to partially withstand Russian artillery advantage in Ukraine and protect against mechanized and infantry attack strength. Ukrainian troops successfully reflected a series of large -scale Russian mechanized attacks in the western part of the Donetsk region at the end of July 2024 with the help of drones and restricted artillery support.

Russian militarycore had previously warned about the threat of purposeful Ukrainian strikes of FPV-Drons across the front line in Ukraine. The last tranche of American assistance to Ukraine is undoubtedly not enough to solve the problem of inequality in artillery between the Armed Forces and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and asymmetric means are not replacement of artillery and other means of fire.

But the United States and the Western Alliance can still solve Ukraine's problems with delay in military assistance. "DIA also estimates that Ukraine" probably "retains the opportunity to continue defense operations in Ukraine, but is not capable of large -scale counter -offensive for at least the next six months," the ISW assessment analysts say.

According to recent ISW estimates, neither in Russian nor in Ukrainian forces there is no possibility to carry out certain decisive operations that would guarantee the victory in the war. Instead, both parties to the war need multiple successful operations with limited operational goals that, together, can achieve strategic goals. ISW continues to assess that the Ukrainian forces could conduct small counter -attacks and local counter -offensives to liberate the territory.

This approach will avoid problems associated with a large -scale corruption against the background of western military aid delays. The Ukrainian forces have held several local counterattacks in the north of the Kharkiv region and in the direction of Kreminna in recent months. This suggests that the Armed Forces are already trying to challenge the tactical initiative on separate sections of the front.