Tension in society is increasing: more and more Russians are dissatisfied with the invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine - ISW

According to experts, crime growth, alcohol abuse, inflation and high prices for consumer goods also contribute to the growth of social tension, and many of these factors are likely to deepen the continued war of the Russian Federation in Ukraine. The war of Russia in Ukraine has led to new social contradictions and aggravation of existing ones inside the country, which remain very noticeable in the Russian information space, despite the efforts that the Kremlin makes for censorship.

This is stated in the report of the Institute of War Study (ISW) for December 1. According to the source, relatives of mobilized servicemen continue to file complaints and calls for assistance to the mobilized, despite the reports of attempts by censorship by Russia.

On November 29, the Russian opposition edition "Important History" reported that since the beginning of a full -scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Russians sent more than 180,000 complaints to the Presidential Department of the Russian Federation on issues concerning the Ministry of Defense (MO). Most of these complaints, according to experts, concern payments to servicemen, mobilization status, missing and poor health care.

The Kremlin also uses recent ethnic tensions in Russia to support measures to increase strength and appeal to Russian ultrading, creating a cycle that keeps this tension in the foreground of ultranationalist dialogue. In addition, the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine reported that because of the war in Ukraine, especially in the west of the country, protest activity and social tension and that the higher echelons of the Russian leadership are being discussed.

GUR noted that the increase in crime, alcohol abuse, inflation and high prices for consumer goods also contribute to the growth of social tensions, and many of these factors are likely to deepen Russia's war in Ukraine.

The Kremlin is constantly unable to set Russian society in a military order to support Russia's military action, and changing the results of surveys and increasing social tensions indicate that this failure has a significant impact on Russian society on the eve of the 2024 presidential election. The Kremlin is concerned about how a change in the perception of Russians with respect to military events can affect the results of the upcoming presidential election.

In this regard, measures are being taken to support the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin in the electoral sense not exclusively on success in the military field. According to the latest data, it became known that the number of Russian citizens who express full support for the war in Ukraine has decreased by about twice since February 2023.

Moreover, it is emphasized that more Russians are supported by the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine than those who do not support this step. The ISW states that the war of Russia in Ukraine has created a new social tension inside Russia and exacerbated the existing one, which remains very noticeable in the Russian information space, despite the constant efforts of the Kremlin censorship.

According to analysts, the Kremlin may express anxiety about the impact of the change in the perception of the Russians of war in Ukraine on the results of the future presidential elections in Russia in March 2024. In this regard, steps are taken to ensure that the real election support of Russian President Vladimir Putin does not depend solely on the success of the Russians in the military field.

Putin is being reported to focus his presidential campaign on alleged internal stability in Russia and strengthening the event criticism instead of focusing on the war. It should be reminded that on November 30, the GUR reported that social tension continues to grow on the territory of the Russian Federation and it is connected directly with the war that President Vladimir Putin began.