Putin will fight until he loses everything. There is no hope for negotiations anymore

For the dictatorship of forecasting, and even more so, the consequences of the future war are objectively impossible. Dictators live in an artificially created information bubble. They operate only by the data they like and resonate with their opinion. For Putin's authoritarian regime, the process of deciding to enter the war had features. I do not exclude that starting the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin had some optimistic calculations about China's future reaction.

But in order to work out reasonable assumptions, you need to analyze the picture of the world outside your own experience or your own beliefs. Autocracy is not able to analyze, because Putin's surroundings are not disagreeable. This is the real weakness of autocrats. They do not receive alternative views on issues and inevitably fall out of objective reality. It is quite clear that the purpose of Russia was the full capture of Ukraine.

Putin makes the decision to invade, wants to take Kyiv in three days and loses. The purpose of the dictator is unattainable. But he goes on and still undergoes catastrophic losses. First, these are material losses. The media has already estimated that in the past months Russia has spent $ 82 billion in war. This is a very significant amount of approximately 25% of the state aggressor state budget. Secondly, it becomes obvious that the Kremlin is exhausting weapons.

Third, the war has already taken tens of thousands of lives of Russian citizens. However, I am not sure whether human lives are important for Russia. But I know for sure - the more difficult military and economic losses, the more difficult it is to put a point on a military campaign. I once talked to the head of the US Special Operation Command General Tony Thomas. Some parents lost an adult during the war in Afghanistan.

And during his personal communication with the general, they insisted that he should in any case continue to fight: "Then we will feel that our child was killed in vain. " Tony Thomas told me that it was one of the hardest things he had to deal with. It is a concept such as "deception of irreversible costs. " Usually, because of the large previous victims, ordinary people, ordinary people tend to strive for further growth of appropriate investments.

But in reality it cannot be crucial how many resources have been spent during hostilities. It sounds awful, but it is impossible to consider how much tragic human losses have suffered. And about Putin, he is now set to achieve his goal. Yes, he is ready to invest even more money. Should he be exposed to the Russian military at further risk? Of course. Putin does not appreciate the lives of other people and he will go.

In psychology, there is a phenomenon called an irrational escalation or escalation of affection. This is when a person feels obliged to maintain a decision made earlier, although it was false. You get signals that everything is bad, and it is obvious that things are bad. And it would seem that you need to give up your goal yesterday. But despite common sense, a person in every way rationalizes the further implementation of a bad plan.

Even when he or she has to invest resources to support the previous decision or not. Even if it is not necessary, a person will grasp everything to continue. For example, winter. Putin destroys Ukrainian critical infrastructure so that people lose their normal living conditions. Due to the lack of heating, water and electricity, Ukrainians should weaken. And then, Putin assures himself, he will be able to win.

Does it think that if there is no Russian oil or gas in Europe, Europeans will have to pay big money for energy. Then NATO will cease to support Ukraine and Russia will be able to win. Therefore, note that these actions are signs of irrational escalation. Putin is feverishly looking for the opportunity to rationalize further participation in the battle that is already lost. The dictator understands that after losing the power will no longer work. So he plans to stop only after reaching his goals.

There is still a problem of identity. Is it an internal and external check in which a person finds out who he sees himself? Does he consider himself competent, worthy of his goal? Does his world see this? The answers become difficult when a person does actions that have no external support. The same questions are faced with Putin. He is aware that after losing in the war, he will no longer succeed. Putin will no longer be the omnipotent person he thought himself.

We can assume that he will only stop only when he reaches his goal. As I said, the ultimate goal of Putin is to completely capture the territory of Ukraine. He already had Crimea and Donbas, but it did not make him calm down. Therefore, nothing but achieving the original goal is not able to satisfy it. When a person rises to Everest Mountain and does not reach 30 feet from the top, he fails. And those 29,000 feet that the climber still rose to him is worthless.

Therefore, Putin does not matter if he will leave behind the territory he had at the time of a large -scale invasion, whether he will receive slightly more than what he started with. Nothing of this will be success for him if he has already declared that he intends to take away all Ukraine in three days. Therefore, he is definitely not interested in ending the war as much as some politicians or analytics continue to assure.

It should be understood that now the personality of the Russian dictator is threatened. It has a huge amount of irreversible expenses invested in the war in Ukraine. In order to leave, the dictator must lose absolutely everything. It should also be borne in mind that Putin is a face behind this bloody invasion. It is he who makes the main decisions. Therefore, another way to stop this war is to overthrow Putin, to deprive him of his posts and powers. Putin will never stop the war in Ukraine.