Russian troops changed their mind to capture the northern part of Kharkiv region - ISW

According to analysts, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation began to step when the group was not sufficiently completed. The command, apparently, did not expect limited forces to move relatively far. The initial plans of the Russian military command had a rapid promotion in the north of the Kharkiv region. But the limited group of forces, deployed in the area, indicates that the plans have changed before the onset. About it writes "Institute of War Study" in the summary of May 21.

Analysts refer to the Economist for May 20, whose authors were probably familiar with the military plans of Russian troops on the offensive in Kharkiv and Vovchansky directions. There are no plans. It is reported that the Russian plans provided advancement for 72 hours to Borshchiv (20 km northeast of Kharkiv and about 16 km from the international border) to place troops from Kharkiv within the reach of the artillery.

It is reported that the Russian plans also provided for the promotion to the Pechenegs (about 50 kilometers from the international border) in an unspecified time. The Russian offensive was planned to start from May 15 to May 16, it is unknown why the offensive operations were underwent on May 10. According to ISW estimates, since May 10, Russian troops advanced a maximum of 10 kilometers in the direction of Kharkiv and a maximum of seven kilometers in the direction of Vovchansk.

On May 2, Deputy Chief of GUR Major General Vadim Skibitsky reported that Russian troops concentrated about 35,000 personnel in the international border and planned to concentrate from 50 to 70 thousand. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation began to come when the troops' grouping was not sufficiently completed. And now the number of combat forces is limited in the area.

According to analysts, the Russian military command, apparently, did not expect that limited and insufficiently completed forces would move so far. The Ukrainian reserve officer noted that after the failures in 2022 the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation focused on the "creeping offensive", and not at a rapid to operational depth. Recall that Russian troops can open a new front. Another area can be the goal of the enemy.