Three calls for Kiev: what actions of the Russian Federation can indicate the preparation of a new invasion from the north

Do we first hear about the actions of the Russians in the border of Sumy region? For the first time, do we hear about the efforts to expand the bridgeheads in Kupyansk or move in the north of Kharkiv region? Is the enemy's plans for the creation of buffer zones in Sumy, Kharkiv or Chernihiv, as well as the complete capture of Donetsk and Luhansk regions? No, no secrets are this, and therefore Alexander Sirsky again named things by his name.

Now, on the offensive from Belarus, on the pretext of Leaders' West-2025. First, there is no threat from the Belarusian direction right now. Second, can it exist in principle? Theoretically - yes! Including under the guise of exercises, which Alexander Sirsky says. Then what can be the operation of "Kyiv 2. 0"? Initially, about what it can definitely not be.

It is unlikely to repeat the scenario of February 2022, when the enemy tried to capture the airfields of Gostomel and Vasylkiv with the help of a landing, and then to throw the troops there to unfold the offensive on the capital. It is worth admitting that the idea was quite elegant. If he succeeded, there would be an overflow. But, as we know, he did not succeed, so the dewy led a disadvantageous land offensive on the capital, in which they were shocked and defeated.

Now this is unlikely to happen, because the landing of Gostomel will simply not fly, and the Russian army will not be so professional, equipped and trained for a very long time, which it was in February 2022. That army has already been knocked out, and it takes time to restore it. Therefore, there is a ground offensive immediately.

The experience of offensive in the Donetsk region and other directions suggests that the Russians will be pressed with mass, seep, toss meat on earth and bombs from the air. The airy component will deliver a lot of trouble, but the city takes the infantry. But for the land you will need more than one hundred thousand people. I will not draw battle paintings here about how the enemy could perform Operation "Kiev 2. 0" and whether it is capable of it in principle.

But in principle, they have a human resource that can be typed by partial mobilization. Therefore, if such mobilization is announced in the near future, it will be the first alarm. Next, it should be understood that West-2025 training is planned in September. They provide for the participation of 13 thousand servicemen. If they remain there and the terms of the exercise will continue constantly - this will be the second call.

Well, and the third call is the transfer of a large number of troops and their placement in the areas that would provide an offensive in the Kyiv and Chernihiv region. If all these conditions come together, the option "Kiev 2. 0" can be married somewhere until spring next year. But, I emphasize, all this is very theoretical, even hypothetical. There is no such threat at this time. Of course, we will see all such movements.

The enemy's intentions are no longer a secret if they are in principle discussed. In addition, it is not 2022 now. The Russians had to collect a new 300,000th army, and it should still be armed. In general, surgery on the environment and capture of the capital is a strategic level operation. It will require a huge training that can not be noticed. I repeat, the question - is the modern Russian army capable of a successful operation of such a scale? - I leave behind the scenes.