By Victor Duda
According to the analytics, the basic scenario for the completion of intensive fighting in Ukraine remains unchanged in the second half of 2024, when a probable period was indicated by the fourth quarter of 2025. "Although the risks remain exceptionally high, the basic scenario still stipulates that the war will end in the last months of this year," the memorandum text stated. At the same time, the IMF analysts have worsened the Ukrainian economy growth forecast for 0.
5% for the whole year, and by 2026 experts reduced the projected level of economy growth by 0. 8%. In addition, experts predict the rate of economic growth of Ukraine at 2-3%. The reasons for such a low target increase in the economy are reducing the exports of steel and increasing coal imports due to the closure of the mine in Pokrovsk, located not far from the war zone.
Another factor in reducing the forecast rate of economic growth is the increase in gas imports due to the increase in the number of Russian attacks on the object of gas and gas transportation structure of Ukraine. IMF analysts believe that a shift in the termination of war can improve the situation in the Ukrainian economy. At the same time, because the negotiations are currently at the initial stage, experts provide "possible changes in international financial support and support of Ukraine.
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