Unpromising offensive: the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will not be able to quickly move on Avdiivka - ISW

This is stated in the report of the Institute of War Study (ISW) for February 15. The document emphasizes that the Russian forces began a local offensive for the purpose of capturing Avdiivka in October 2023, but only recently they began to tactically move through the settlement after several months of infantry storms and a series of massive mechanized attacks that led to significant losses in equipment and warehouse.

The ISW report stresses that the Ukrainian defense forces have strengthened their positions near settlements around Avdiivka, which complicates the attempts of Russian troops to seize these territories, especially in the west and north of the city. The source emphasizes that in the Avdiivka area the closest relatively large settlements are located at least 30 kilometers to the west.

Russian troops do not show readiness to carry out a rapid mechanized offensive and seize these cities and villages in the near or even medium term. "Russian troops have lost a lot of live strength and technique for the capture of Avdiivka, so they will probably need a long period of consolidation, recovery and rest before they try to take further coordinated offensive actions in the area," the report reads.

In view of these factors, the ISW suggests that in the case of Avdiivka, Russian troops are unlikely to move quickly. At the same time, the potential capture of the city, maximum, will create the conditions for further limited tactical advantages. We will remind that Brigade General Alexander Tarnavsky told what was happening in Avdiivka. He stated that the situation is difficult but controlled. There is a planned strengthening of units and maneuver troops are carried out in threatening areas.