Eight factors affecting the course of war. What can change?

Now I go to the question of what is happening on the battlefield. And it happens, as for me, that's what - Russia loses. Russia's decision to invade Ukraine was not only a crime but also a mistake. It is difficult for any government to admit it (we are still waiting for a decision on a Fiasco of America in the war in Iraq). But it is especially difficult for a tyrant whose power is based on his image of a strong person with an infallible judgment.

Russia has reached the stage of the war in which it is fighting, because it would not be shameful for her. And she quickly reached this stage. The war will end only when Putin realizes that Russia is losing it, in the sense that he will understand that his personal situation is at risk. In other words, it is not possible to understand everything here - it is not about the held or lost areas or the losses received or caused, it is about a political situation that is difficult to catch accurately.

Most likely, Russian defeat will look like a moment in the Ukrainian war, which will change the mood in Russia and create visible tension within the Russian state, thus forcing Putin to change his history. Is this possible? Undoubtedly, Putin can change his story. He always does it. Actually, so he controls. He changed his story when he had fallen into Ukraine for the last time and could not reach his goal.

The transition from the thesis "invasion of Ukraine is impossible" to the thesis "invasion of Ukraine inevitably" in February this year was held with Orwell. And he can change narratives again (until the situation is finally out of control). But he will not change the story until he has to do it, and only Ukrainian successes can make him go for it. Can Ukrainians demonstrate the desired impulse on the battlefield? I think it is possible but at first I want to recognize one very important thing.