Putin's last chance: The Russian Federation will try to capture the entire Donetsk region in the summer of 2025 - WP

This was stated by Ukrainian military officials and analysts, noting that it has already begun. Ukrainian intelligence statements are increasingly being heard when it became clear that the process of peace talks through the US and Personally Donald Trump, who promised to finish the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, shouted. It is known that meetings of the Ukrainian and Russian sides did not produce results, and Russia has rejected repeated calls for the US and Europe to an immediate ceasefire.

American analysts have stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is probably convinced that he could still win a war in military plan, although sanctions and great losses are slowly undermining Russia's military car. And the summer of 2025 can be the last chance for the Russian dictator on a big offensive. Control over the Donetsk region is generally a priority for Putin since he failed to capture Kiev at the beginning of the war in 2022.

In September of that year, Putin declared the whole of Donetsk together with three other Ukrainian regions part of the Russian Federation - despite the fact that none of them won completely. The analysis that Russia seeks more territory proceeds from the fact that it insists on its interest in discussing peace, but says that the termination of hostilities can only occur by eliminating the "fundamental causes" of conflict.

After direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on May 16, each party agreed to make a memorandum that would detail its principles for any agreement. According to analysts, at the same time as the main offensive on Donetsk, about 70 percent of which it controls, the Kremlin plans to conduct less large-scale attacks along the border of the Northeast Sumy and Kharkiv regions of Ukraine to increase pressure on Ukrainian troops.

The plan of Russia is to "try to put Ukrainian forces along the front line, including in Sumy and Kharkiv regions, but otherwise they will prioritize Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka," - said at the National Institute of Strategic Studies of Ukraine, talking about two Donetsk cities that Russia has been trying for almost a year.

So far, Konstantinovka is not on the verge of capture, but now it is a "promising" perspective for the Russians, as Russia is able to attack it from three different directions. Analysts anticipated last summer that these two cities would fall by December; Russia failed, thanks to the titanic efforts of Ukrainian soldiers. But Ukraine is difficult to mobilize and supply ammunition, so it will be difficult in the coming months.

Meanwhile, Russia exceeds its plans from a set of servicemen, but it is still lacking in the number required for several successful offensives, say analysts and representatives of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Russia took 80,000 soldiers to take a small town of Avdiivka in Donetsk region in February 2024 after a grueling siege.

Currently, 125,000 Russian soldiers are located at the border of Sumy and Kharkiv regions - this is clearly not enough to take two regional capitals, according to the data provided by Ukraine's military intelligence. Most likely, these troops will be used to occupy areas of Ukrainian land along the border, said Andrey Chernyak, a representative of the military intelligence of Ukraine.

Russia has already stated that it seeks to create "buffer zones" along the border to prevent the invasion of the Armed Forces in the Kursk and Belgorod region of the Russian Federation. Without people or techniques for its own offensive, Ukraine will continue the defensive strategy it has been applying since 2024-holding the front line and as much as possible complicating the capture of any territory for the forces of Moscow.

The key to this strategy will be constant deliveries of foreign weapons - what is not guaranteed by the United States. However, Europe seeks to increase its contribution. We will remind, on May 26, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that all restrictions on the use of Ukraine's weapons were lifted. This statement was used by the Kremlin to declare that Europe was "preventing peace. " And the Russians in Sumy region and further small groups try to go deep into the Ukrainian territory.