Just a business. USA, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and Ukraine: Who is with whom and against whom

"The main event of yesterday, and perhaps a week, was OPEC+ a reduction in oil production by 2 million barrels, but in fact - less than 1 million barrels. And this is the case when Washington's reaction to such OPEC decision was no less important From the point of view of influence and consequences than the OPEC decision itself. " Opinion. We.

From Ukraine, after the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which led to a sharp fall in oil prices, the Trump administration became a negotiator that has reconciled competitors. In the termination of unprofitable for both sides of the competition, Russia, together with Saudi Arabia, became the leader of the cartel. Although Riyadh continues to play the role of the main player in this relationship.

Russia also wins from the reduction of production, as its oil revenues, despite sanction pressure, can be maintained at today, and ideal for it even to grow to compensate for unattached income through the sale of oil at significant discounts to Asia. OPEC+ decisions were also made at a time when the EU has agreed to limit Russian oil prices, which immediately raised the issue of its implementation in the face of reducing resources in the market.

Deputy Minister of Energy of Russia Novak, who was not prevented by the sanctions from participating in the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna, used the platform to increase the rhetoric of energy blackmail, saying that Russia will not supply oil to unfriendly countries that apply such price limitation.

Prior to this, Saudi Arabia Crown Prince, who recently held the post of government leader, who is unprecedented in the Living King, received a high -profile victory in the world diplomatic market thanks to Putin's concession. Due to his direct participation, a successful exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and Russia took place.

Among others were the legendary heroes - the defenders of Mariupol and ten foreign citizens on the one hand, a friend and godfather of Putin, who is a person involved in a number of investigations in Ukraine and the US, from state betrayal to interference in the US election - on the other. It is unknown that in exchange for this received the Kremlin.

If you add more and more rapprochement in recent years, including the forced, the kingdom with Russia and the PRC, the personal capture of MBS Putin and the common autocraticity of the board, there is a temptation to simplify such OPEC+ solution to the phrase "Saudi Arabia supports Russia". But such simplification will be false. Indeed, since the full -scale invasion, we have heard the public condemnation of Russia's actions by Saudi Arabia. The kingdom did not join the sanctions.

There were a number of telephone conversations between the Prince and Putin, which did not raise the issue of warning the war. Riyadh continues to openly insist on his alleged neutral status and is not willing to choose the side. At the same time, Saudi Arabia voted to the UN for resolutions condemning Russia's invasion. The main security challenge of the kingdom is the military confrontation with Iran and his proxy in the region.

More than 80% of Riyadh's defense equipment is built in the United States. And the Strategic Partnership of the United States and Saudi Arabia has been 77 years old, and it does not seem that the kingdom is ready to lose such an important partner. In order to understand the motivation of the kingdom, which is guided by such seemingly opposite strategies, one should look at the past, present and future with the eyes of Riyadh.

The third President of the United States in a row demonstrates that the Middle East is not on the first line of American interests. Russia's war against Ukraine and competition with the PRC is the main priority of Biden administration. Obama's inaction in response to the use of chemical weapons in Syria, the actual lack of Trump's response to Iran Husita Saudi Oil Oil Objects, which led to 50%of the production of biden Devaluation of the region for Washington.

The inappropriate oil agreement in exchange for security, which was one of the central relations between Washington and Riyadh, according to the kingdom, the last three administrations fully performed only one party. Perhaps this was one of the factors that pushed Riyadh to a closer partnership with Russia, which, unlike the United States, kept a significant military presence and impact in the Middle East.

In addition, neither Russia nor the PRC does not raise the prince of unnecessary questions about repression, the breakdown of Hashoggi, and they are not disturbed by the beheaded in the kingdom of 81 dissident in the kingdom. Biden promised to make the kingdom of ragies during his election campaign, and after joining the post, the CIA was published by the investigation data, who claimed that Hashoggi was killed and known at Kronprintz.

Much of Baiden's colleagues in the Democratic Party calls on Washington to a more stringent position on the Kingdom for human rights abuses. And the US President's trip to Saudi Arabia in July, along with the kulak and Biden kulack, was a harsh criticism in the Western media and a large part of American politicians. "The presidency must stand for something," Biden resisted the persistent advice of his assistants to visit Riyadh.

Although he later retreated, the visit was quite cold and it was visible that it was not a strategic restructuring of relationships with correction of past mutual mistakes, but only an effort to hide garbage under the carpet. This could be the beginning of a new strong partnership between countries or fail. But yesterday's OPEC+ decision does not indicate that it is a failure. Saudi Arabia in this case was guided solely by its interests, not playing either in Russia or in the PRC.

The kingdom, despite the large-scale reforms conducted by Crown Printer, from reducing the role of the state in the economy and state aid in people's lives, ending with the involvement of women in the country's business life and promoting the development of non-oil-related areas fuel.

Every year, this addiction is becoming more threatening, especially now, given the significant invasion of Russia has accelerated the development of pure energy in the world and possible recession that can lead to one of the greatest downs . Plus, while the population of the kingdom is mostly young, Crown Prince has an opportunity to get them from paternalism and rebuild the country's economy.

Ten years later, they will already be less sensitive to large -scale transformations and the opposition of the transformation of the rent economy into a modern one can be greater. Therefore, for the kingdom, these months may be an extreme opportunity to secure additional income for development in the near future, and the people of thousands of Ukrainians by Russia are not sufficiently argument to act against their own interests, as well as the supply of weapons.

This can be added to Saudi Arabia's concern by Israeli policy on Palestinians, which has not changed significantly. The refusal of Iran Hussites in Yemen to continue the armistice for far -fetched grounds at the last moment despite the agreements reached before this, which is associated with Tehran's accusations, in particular, Saudi Arabia in igniting protests in Iran.

And much more, which indicates that the list of issues and interests in the US and the kingdom transactional relations is significantly more than oil, supplying weapons and the extraction of Crown Print from Purgatory. Some try to explain the OPEC+ decision to Congress in November, at which the price of gasoline will play one of the decisive roles for Americans, which can add votes to the Republicans.

Of course, the friendship of Cronprintz and Trump was too open and "vulgar" as for international politics. Trump did not hide his dedication to Crown Prince and even interfered with the kingdom's internal policy in some way, promoting him as a successor of the king. And the prince himself, again, without hiding, took Trump in a special way and even invested billions of dollars in the foundations of Trump's son-in-law.

However, after such a gross interference in each other's internal affairs, the prince had to make a lesson: cooling relations with Washington is, in particular, the result of the improper diplomacy of Riyadh. The fact that much of the Democrats still perceive the kingdom as a partner of Republicans has repeatedly impeded the prince in the last two years in lobbying the interests of the kingdom in Washington.

So it is reasonable that, having received the highest position and responsibility, the prince, on the contrary, had more resources to leave it in the past and build an equidistant two -party relations with the United States. Therefore, I want to hope that this was not a reason, otherwise it is a short -sighted step of a too influential country with a too influential leader. Summarizing.

Biden with MBS cannot be with each other for value reasons, but cannot be without each other - for material reasons. The United States cannot leave the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia is the leader of the region that relies on strong power and economy. Similarly, Saudi Arabia cannot retain and strengthen its leadership, and distrust of Russia and the PRC as partners with all autocratic similarity is too significant to abandon the diversification between Washington, Moscow and Beijing.

The convergence of the PRC and Russia with Tehran, the enemy of Saudi Arabia, even more requires the Riyadh to spread their eggs in different baskets. It is unlikely that yesterday will lead to a fundamental cooling of relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia. At least this will categorically contradict the interests of both of them, playing in favor of their enemies.