Russia in isolation, Ukraine - with an agreement: what will turn a new schedule of forces in the war

One of the obvious signals is the signing with Ukraine a strategic agreement on cooperation in the field of minerals. This document gives US companies privileged access to Ukrainian natural resources, including aluminum, graphite, oil, natural gas, lithium, titanium and rare earth elements that are critical for the production of electric vehicles, solar panels, military equipment and semiconductors. Yulia Sviridenko and US Finance Minister Scott Bessent.

The key element of the agreement is the creation of a joint investment fund of reconstruction, which will attract international investments for Ukraine's economic restoration after the war. The profits from the implementation of projects in the field of mineral production will be directed to this fund.

In addition, the US Senate is considering a bill, which provides for the introduction of 500% of duties on imports of goods from countries that continue to buy Russian energy, including oil, gas and uranium. This initiative is part of the broader sanctions against Russia in response to its aggression against Ukraine.

The bill, known as "Sancing Russia Act of 2025" was represented by Senators by Lindsey Gram (Republican) and Richard Blumpleal (Democrat) and has already received support for more than 60 senators, which can provide overcoming possible presidential veto. Senator Graham noted that the purpose of the bill is to increase the pressure on countries that maintain economic relations with Russia to force Moscow to serious negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

He also stressed that President Trump supports this initiative as a tool to reach peace. The bill also provides a ban on US citizens to buy Russian government bonds, which is an additional measure of economic pressure on Russia. However, some experts warn that such high duties can have a negative impact on US exports, because and India.

The bill is currently under consideration in the Senate, and his subsequent fate depends on the support of the House of Representatives and the position of the Presidential Administration. In addition to signing the Mining Agreement and the Sancing Russia Act of 2025, the US Presidential Presidential Sale of Ukraine has approved the first -time sales of Ukraine's first -time. (Direct Commercial Sales, DCS). This decision was the first since Trump's return to the White House in January 2025.

On April 30, the US State Department officially announced the Congress of Intention to allow export of defense products, technical data and services to Ukraine. The license was submitted in accordance with the law on control of the export of weapons governing the sale of weapons to foreign partners. It may seem that the US is beginning to play only on the side of Ukraine and already frankly pressed on Russia. However, political scientists are in no hurry to draw such conclusions.

"I would say so: it is not a dramatic change for the sake of justice. But there is a certain trend. The US does not see from Russia any signs of readiness to sit at a table of negotiations, so gradually begin to increase the pressure. This is evident through the statements of senators and preparation of relevant laws, as well as a pupil, Reitrovich. It will be difficult to say something global - it is difficult.

Russia can "roll back" the situation at any time-for example, to agree to negotiations-and then the pressure will stop. But since this is unlikely, the trend of pressure from the United States is likely to grow. Although, according to the political scientist, it is not critical - it is not necessary to expect that Ukraine will be struck by money and weapons. "But this is a fairly transparent signal towards Russia. And for us this trend is positive. The main task is to keep it.

By the way, the signing of this agreement (about subsoil) in a political sense is an opportunity to keep the focus of Donald Trump's attention in Ukraine. And we have to use it. The expert continues. According to the political scientist, Putin does not need the cause for escalation. He can do it at any time. The Russians tried to prevent the signing of the agreement - failed. If Russia now begins to increase the pressure, it will only open Trump's hands more.

"Because it is impossible to sign an agreement and then to blame Ukraine that the war does not end. For us now there was a" window of opportunity ". There is a few weeks. Intentions. This bill has already supported the Senate. Now the queue behind the House of Representatives, and then after Trump himself. But according to the political scientist, it is likely that it will happen after May 9. "If it happens, it will be a tremendous stroke for Russia.

Many countries will simply not want to trade with it because it will be unprofitable. But I'm not sure that the US will go to it right now. Trump will pull to the end and try to use milder pressure methods," Reitrovich said. Sanctions of 500% of duties on imports of goods from countries, including from the Russian Federation, are one of the strongest tools left in the United States. According to the political scientist, so far Trump has not used this tool, but already demonstrates and intimidates.