Dry and cruel calculation: Vladimir Putin's Crimean blackmail

And in this, I think, all Vladimir Putin. The first element of this blackmail is the legitimation of the destruction of the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine. For the first time since the beginning of the war, Russian leaders have practically not hidden that they seek to destroy civilian infrastructure.

It would seem that in the event of the destruction of the Crimean bridge, in which the Kremlin accuses Ukrainian special services, the strikes should be struck on the notorious "decision -making centers". But no, the Kremlin is interested in infrastructure, and Russian propagandists explain these attacks to their audience with the fact that "Ukraine has started the first. " The second blackmail element is a willingness to ask a grain agreement.

It seems that Putin's blackmail is part of the West Strategy. He probably has not yet abandoned the idea that the press writes, to provoke a global migration crisis with the help of famine in the countries of the "global south". The Russian president probably remembers how the migration crisis of the Syrian war has changed the political landscape of Europe - and "can repeat".

The Kremlin may have kept the fears that in the famine of the country of the "global south" they will accuse Russia itself - and then not only "turn from the west" but also "turn to the east" will not happen. However, the failures on the fronts can encourage Putin to starve. And the fact that the Russian president speaks of the possibility of delivery of explosives to blast the Kerch Bridge . . . Grain truck, testifies.

Such a mythical "grain" may appear in the report of the investigative committee of the Russian Federation at any moment. And if Putin announces the rejection of the agreement, it will not be "revenge" either. I am sure it will be a dry and cruel calculation. There were many such blackmail elements in Russian politics around Crimea and, there will be many. The fire on the Kerch Bridge clearly demonstrated Putin's readiness to use any situation to further escalate the situation.