Breath of the embargo of the Russian Federation: What will happen to fuel in Ukraine? We are waiting for two or three months of turbulence

The current situation in the main directions of supply of fuel to Ukraine Bulgaria: the complete cessation of exports due to the uncertainty of further work of Lukoil oil refining enterprise Lukoil Neftochim in Burgas. Romania: Tankers' delay due to weather conditions, repair of the reservoirs of Constantz port, blocked the berth because of suspicions in the Russian origin of diesel, rumors about the stop of Lukoiliv Petrotel-Lukoil, one of the leading oil refineries in Romania.

Greece: no suggestions. Turkey: refusal of Ukrainian companies to diesel Star (daughter of the Azerbaijani company Socar in Turkey) due to insufficient frost resistance, lack of free parties in the port of OPET (rumors that comrades indicated inadmissibility . Italy: turbulence through the nationalization of the largest Lukoilian refinery ISAB on Fr. Sicily. Poland: Limited resource and disruption in the delivery schedule due to the load of railways, in particular by increasing coal transportation.

There are also common problems for all problems Russian oil is replaced by other varieties, they are mostly lighter. That is, the selection of medium distillates - diesel and airline - smaller. This is the most popular position in Europe. From the positive - an increase in gasoline production, with it the situation on the market is much better. What it leads to and has already led to an increase in prices and services for the transportation of fuel and land.

These indicators are already approaching the spring. Over the past few weeks, the Prize ("Khotylki" international traders) have already increased by $ 70-80/t (up to 3 UAH/l). But even those who are ready to throw and 100 cannot get the product because it is not. Therefore, you should not rush to cheat our allies at the threshold of $ 60/barrel. On Russian oil. The question is not in price, but there is no shortage. Because we will also get a shortage and space prices.

This period should simply go as we have gone a much more difficult stage of market restructuring in the spring. Because we had to replace 100% of pre -war supply sources, and Europe should be found "only" 40%. At first there was nothing - neither the resource nor the rolling stock, because no one was waiting for us. But when we created a stable demand, the product appeared, and then at times the bonuses and tariffs of carriers fell. Europe is now going on.

They already have the first victory - almost abandoned Russian gas. Yes, at the peak price jumped up to $ 3000 for 1000 cubic meters, but now it was flooded, and the price for 1000 cubes is already $ 1500 (and it was lower). It is much more difficult to do with gas, because there is a lack of tankers and transsens on the market. And the diesel is carried by the sea for decades. There are already signals of reorientation to Europe of large tankers from India and China.

Attractive (high) prices will delay more and more product from all over the world. As soon as the new supply configuration is built, prices will fall. Moreover, unlike natural gas, the rise in price is not at times. It is necessary to wait for Russian fuel completely to leave Europe from February 5, 2023. Although more and more traders are refusing it, it is on the market. I will say more, it is also in Ukraine and also slows down the full transition to the market "without you".