The only version of Putin is escalation? Where and what the Kremlin will dare

It rapidly moving in the opposite direction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out two stunningly successful counter -offensives around Kharkiv in the east of the country and in the south near the Kherson occupied by Russia. Kyiv now states that he has won about 8500 square kilometers of its territory, which can cut off and trap a large part of the Russian invasion forces. Video of the day by its own standards of the Kremlin can hardly be called a victory.

To implement Russia's military goals, including the change of the regime and the creation of the Crimean Corridor, which deprives Ukraine of access to the Black Sea, will need nothing more than a sharp change in the course of events. Putin now, in fact, has three options. First, he can seek a political decision, hoping to keep the territory captured by the Kremlin's puppets eight years before its invasion in 2022.

This is an unattractive choice, especially since the optimistic President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is hardly tuned to agree on the conditions favorable for Moscow. At the international level, it would be a humiliating blow to Russia's prestige: a small state wins a leading nuclear state in the Great ground War. Inside Putin's country, it will sharply call into question his leadership. The signs of growing internal discontent now include the statements of local deputies of St.

Petersburg, who publicly urge Putin for treason, another group of deputies from Moscow, who urges him to resign, and even state media. The second option for Putin is to try to restore a long and grueling campaign. But even if his troops are able to stop the progress of Ukrainians, Russia can only reach a pathological situation when the war will return to static artillery duels. This will allow you to win time.

This would have demanded the Ukrainian forces and would allow him to check that the use of energy as weapons this winter will not undermine the determination of the European Union. However, at the current rate of loss of Russia, its usual forces will be depleted in about 12 months. Both in NATO and Ukraine are well aware of it. The third version of Putin is escalation: to send a signal to both the event and Ukraine that it is seriously configured.