Fighting for reeds: what opportunities open before the Armed Forces after the occupation of the village (map)

The breakthrough in the reed can help the military of the Russian Federation enter the first line of Ukrainian defense. The enemy can take advantage of the situation, enter different beams and ravines from the settlement and continue the infantry attacks, told the Pasi Paroinen OSINT analyst. The armed forces of the Russian Federation have achieved some success in the Avdeevsky direction of Donetsk region.

OSINT analyst, Finland Armed Forces officer and a member of the Black Bird Group Pasi Paroinenn, spoke about the operational situation at the front. He noted that on April 22, the invaders suddenly entered the village of Ocheretyne. "The exact causes of this sudden success are not quite clear, but probably include unsuccessful rotation of the troops, improper distribution of resources and problems with coordination of forces," Pasi Paroinen.

He noted that this is exacerbated by the overall shortage of ammunition and personnel. The invaders are pressed into Ukrainian positions by small -scale attacks and probe actions. After success in the reed, the enemy began to concentrate additional forces in the break, in particular, from different brigades and regiments. However, it is unlikely that the invaders took the whole brigades and regiments into a close battle space.

The analyst noted that forces on both sides operate in tactical groups, but the order of fighting in reality is more chaotic and incomprehensible, especially from the Armed Forces. Many brigades were broken into separate battalions that operate in different directions of the front. While losses on both sides cause the brigades to combine smaller temporary connections. In addition, the enemy regularly throws infantry from territorial regiments to more experienced crews.

Occupation of reeds opens up new tactical opportunities for Russians. In particular, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation tried to expand their front to the breakthrough, quickly occupying Novobakhmutivka and Solovyov and occupying Berdychiv. The enemy also opened a minor breakthrough in the defense of the Armed Forces in the Novokalinov and ceramics.

In addition, a breakthrough in the reed can help the Russians enter the first line of defense of the Armed Forces, so they can try to take advantage of the situation, enter different beams and ravines from the settlement and continue small infantry attacks. To the north of the Arkhangelski ravines, while the offensive of the Russian Federation through this section of the terrain can be combined with a mechanized offensive north along the H20 route.

"The offensive north from the Avdiivka area will be quite likely to be combined with attempts to break the Russians in the ravine area," says Pasi Paroinenn. Together, operations may aim to capture Konstantinovka and the environment or forced the Armed Forces around Toretsk. However, the enemy is far from any prospect to achieve this in the near future.

This scenario may be probable over the next few months, if the Armed Forces continue to suffer from a lack of personnel and ammunition, or if there is a general disorganization of defense. Moreover, several more hot spots on the front may occur in the coming months, the analyst said. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces, the Ukrainian military repelled 55 in the Avdeevsky direction during April 29.

In particular, it happened in the districts of Novokalin, ceramics, Arkhangelsk, Umansky, Sokola, Ocheretin, Kalinov, Solovyov, Novoprovsk, Novoselivka, the first and west of Semenivka, Donetsk region. We will remind, on April 27 the spokesman of OK "Khortytsa" Nazar Voloshin reported that most of the village of Solovyovo in the Avdiivsky direction was under the control of the Armed Forces. According to him, heavy fights continued near the reed.