Meeting Erdogan and Putin: Why negotiations need Russia more than Turkey

Turkey, which positions itself as a mediator tries to find a decision after Russia withdraw from the Grain Agreement on July 17, 2023. After that, as you know, the world prices for grain have increased, and the Kremlin began massive shelling of the infrastructure of Odessa and Danube ports.

"President Erdogan has been intense diplomacy so far to help prevent global food crisis," said a spokesman for a pro -government Turkish political force of "Justice Party and Development" Omer Chelik Daily Sabah, commenting on a future visit. The day before, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited Kiev and Moscow. He prepared the soil for a serious conversation about the grain crisis. The official also raised the issue of peace in Ukraine and the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

But now Russia has demonstrated that these topics are not relevant for it. Although something will happen at the closed door. Initially, Putin would dare to fly to Ankara to meet with Erdogan. But this statement raised reasonable doubts - the Russian President has been trying not to leave his country for several months, fearing arrest because of the International Criminal Court issued in March 2023. So it is not surprising that the Kremlin was not immediately confirmed by Turkey.

"Obviously, Putin does not want to spend the rest of his worthless life in a single chamber, so he is looking for ways to keep his handshake and legitimacy in the international political arena, at least with authoritarian leaders, without traveling outside the Russian Federation. However, such meetings are important with Erdogan - He can sell them to the inner public, demonstrate his influence, "says Focus political expert Maxim Dzhigun.

These meetings for Putin are also important in terms of the 2024 elections, on which he again plans to re -elect. "It is important for him to demonstrate his grandeur, the ability to have diplomatic relations with strategic partners and to play in the public. And not only with Erdogan, but also the head of the PRC, Si Jinping - Putin plans to fly to China in October," the expert continues.

"I don't know if it is possible To count on the results of these meetings on some radical changes in relations between these states, but what they need as simply a manifestation of Russia's media is a key purpose of Putin's movements. Putin seeks to show himself an active player It needs media support, television pictures to win elections. Now, even having such a crazy resource, the question remains: how to win how to trust the team, parties and their propagandists.

" And Putin wants to talk to Erdogan about the economy. "Turkey is an unofficial exporter of sub -goods to Russia. Russia has started to feel much better at this than in the first months after sanctions," Jigun adds. As you know, the vulnerability of Erdogan in relations with Russia is that Turkey depends strongly on Russian energy. Last year, Russia became the largest exporter for Turkey - at cost, ahead of China.

Ankara acquired more Russian oil, gas and coal at reduced prices, which is avoided by the West. Probably, the President of Turkey also mentions the need to exchange Ukrainian prisoners, both military and civilian, especially Crimean Tatars. However, this conversation with Putin is defined in advance as a non -criminal - Erdogan allowed President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky to pick up the commanders and defenders of Mariupol. Erdogan hides in his pocket his trump car - grain.

It is a rather serious tool for Turkey and its economic development, especially in the context of the fall of the Turkish lyre and finding ways to get out of the crisis in which Turkey found itself. In Turkey, grain should become an important tool for economic recovery in the country. And, as the Turkish press writes, there are some experiences on the eve of the meeting of two presidents.

As it became known the day before Turkey is ready to process Russian grain, which will come with a "grain corridor" to flour, to send it to the poor countries of Africa. "When a similar visit is planned, it means that certain arrangements will be reached. There may now continue negotiations. But I do not see Russia's desire to return to the" Grain Agreement "in any format. Putin continues to tell that Any cooperation with Ukraine harms Russian-Turkish interests.

Accordingly, the Russian president continues to bend his line, and there is no signal that he can change this line, "-says the director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies Igor Semivolos. Instead, the expert recalls Erdogan's plan to persuade Russia to agree on a package agreement: Grain with the participation of Ukraine, as well as tripartite: Qatar-Turkey-Russian.

The latter involves the transportation of 1 million tons of Russian grain at a low price under the financial guarantees of Qatar. They will be processed at Turkish enterprises and will be sent to the most needed countries, especially in Africa. "The latter is beneficial for Turkey. As always gets its gheft but will not be responsible for anything. In response, Ankara will suggest that Russia agrees to return the" Grain Agreement. " Adds a seven -haired.

It was this trilateral agreement that had to be discussed earlier in Budapest. The head of the Russian region of Tatarstan Rustam Minnivanov also came to the Hungarian capital in mid -August. He previously stated "support Russia's invasion of Ukraine", is now under US sanctions, but not the EU. He went to Hungary for grain negotiations. "Russia is trying to build an alternative path for Russian grain and stolen Ukrainian outside Ukraine.

But Batch Voting is not required, as well as the Ukrainian" Grain Agreement ". Therefore, Putin will hardly agree. The topic of grain for Moscow has always been political. It agreed to Ukrainian. "Grain Agreement" in response to appeals from 2022 to African countries to Russia on the need to support the grain corridor, food security. Russia has repeatedly offered African countries for free, in particular at meetings with African leaders in Moscow. Question.

Turkey proposes Russia to become a rescuer of African countries, " - sums up seven. But the Agreement with the participation of Qatar of Russia is beneficial not only politically - Ankara wants to have influence in Africa, but also financially. However, there are risks. And they are that Russia seeks to trade stolen Ukrainian grain. Ukraine has already stated that any "grain agreement", with the exception of Kiev, will encourage Russia to steal more grain from the occupied territories of Ukraine.

Is Turkey ready to trade stolen? Experts say: hardly. And all, because Turkey has been seeking to show itself in the world lately as a virtuous partner, especially at the time when Ankara is reappearing to the West. It is said that the Turkish press writes that Turkey seeks to join the EU, and has already approached the purchase of F-16 fighters, the sale of which was previously blocked by the United States.

"Erdogan is now time to think about priorities, whether he wants to trade stolen grain on the blood of Ukrainians, or to build strategic relations with the West, especially in conditions where you need to return their currency level and get out of the global crisis, attracting additional investments," Dzhigun notes . Another possible consequence of meeting Erdogan and Putin may be a conversation about the Kremlin's approach to direct negotiations with the West.

Moscow does not hide its aspirations to reduce sanctions and connection of its banks to SWIFT - restrictions affect and affect the Russian economy. "The Russian Federation does not stop its proposals to foreign countries, the West and Ukraine for the restoration of negotiations to look for ways to understand," said political expert Maxim Jigun. "This track exists, though sometimes information -muffled. They are usually interested in Turkey.

As a country that can be a mediator in such negotiations, whether Russia with Ukraine or Russia with the West. Especially considering that it was possible to reach the "grain corridor" in one time by the "grain corridor" in the mediation of Turkey. " Therefore, Erdogan still believes in the idea of ​​Turkey as a priority mediator in relations between Ukraine and the West, Ukraine and Russia.

"Erdogan is such a person who tries to build his personal image of a world -wide policy that opens gas deposits in the Black Sea, then launches electric cars, builds space programs," continues the expert. - In addition to extracting the country from the crisis, he now has now. Another task is to stay in history as a great leader of Turkey. Of course, he would like to scale and can use Russia as a factor of pressure to the West and vice versa.

This is a question Countries to the EU, because it understands that it is its last time, it will no longer be able to run if it does not change the Constitution. But you need to be completed on a positive note, and it can only be done with the assistance of the event. " However, experts now say that Erdogan has no levers of influencing the event that Putin may be interested in. And one is pressing that the event "fulfill its obligations to export grain by Russia.

" Like, Russian exports of grain and fertilizer do not fall under the sanctions of the event imposed through aggression in Ukraine, but the Kremlin states that "restrictions on payments, logistics and insurance were an obstacle to deliveries. " Therefore, meeting in Sochi will be most likely another stage of negotiations of two sides. In the current environment, Erdogan will press on Russia, will seek to become a mediator of the event in relations with Russia than the other way around.