New Front: Who needs a New Caucasian War. Consider the motivation of the parties

On September 13, the Azerbaijan army allegedly opened fire on Armenian positions and civilian infrastructure. This exacerbation does not need anyone. Even the Russian Federation between Azerbaijan and Armenia is another exacerbation. Azerbaijani troops struck artillery strikes in five places of deployment and warehouses of BC Armenian troops. In the Armenian territory (not "controversial", but Armenian).

For the sake of fairness, it should be noted that Azerbaijan declared artillery and mortar shelling of his positions on September 6, 9, 9 and 10. However, the key question "what positions". Because a little earlier, on August 26, Azerbaijan took control of the city of Lanchin and accordingly Lanchinsky Corridor. The area was theoretically under the control of the "peacekeepers of the Russian Federation", but they brought out a large part of the contingent.

Those who remained did not interfere with the actions of the Azerbaijani authorities. Moreover, on the 25th night, the Russian media said that the Russian Federation had "handed over" Lanchin Azerbaijan. But the corridor is not only a city, it is a strip of land around the roads, where Azerbaijan is now trying to place troops, Armenia is to preserve some of the positions of their Armed Forces and NKR Combatants. Collisions are more than probable.

But the fired territory of Armenia (not occupied by the territories of Azerbaijan), Yerevan sought help from the Russian Federation and the CCU. The 102nd Russian base, according to Russian sources, was raised on alarm. The New Caucasian war of exacerbation in the Caucasus is not desirable for the EU, the US, nor for Turkey or Iran today. And even for the Russian Federation, as the Kremlin is very interested in the implementation of new transport corridors that pass through the conflict zone.

Interested in yesterday, so there is no desire to wait for the war. And, by the way, such interest (except for Russia's difficult situation in Ukraine) explains the passivity of "Russian peacekeepers" and "transfer" of the territories of Azerbaijan under their control. Finally, the next military "slap" of Armenian Prime Minister Nicola Pashinyan, whose situation is not too stable, can also go down as a measure of keeping the official Yerevan in the field of obedience of Russia.

On the other hand, the notes from Ukraine, the Russian media (and politicians) need a "success story" - a demonstration that "Russian weapons are strong", "Russia is a reliable defender". And against this background, Pashinyan uses the mechanism of the contract of March 16, 1995 on the legal status of the 102nd Russian base, as well as the system of contracts (1991, 1997, 2000), which allow to ask for Russian assistance not only for "protecting the borders of the former USSR" .

And, since the targets in Armenia are amazed, appeals to the CDC. Consider the motivation of the parties for Armenia (and Pashinyan personally) need public processes that demonstrate effective protection of national interests and controlled (not only their but also of the controlled part of Azerbaijan) territory. External support is desirable. Large -scale fighting is not required for Turkey and Azerbaijan. But the greater contractuality of Yerevan is desirable.

The United States, in the person of the Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, have already made a lack of a "military solution" of the problem. Similar statements can be expected from a number of European countries. After all, for the EU against the backdrop of gas dives from the Russian Federation, there is no reason to risk the southern supply. Russia has no strength to effectively counteract the Azerbaijan army in the region. Exacerbation with Turkey is extremely undesirable.

And political risks are great - against the backdrop of the escape of the Russian army in the Kharkiv region to show the ability to flee in the Caucasus - too risky. On the other hand, there is a need to play muscles and demonstrate that "Russia is afraid - they are respected. " Help City? This is most likely fantasy.

Central Asian countries will make nothing happening - they have nothing to get involved in Russian adventures - it is easier to observe how Russian mechanisms of external influence are melted. Belarus? For the Belarusian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, to quarrel with Turkish President Radzhep Erdogan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev is suicide. After all, it is trade, the sale of MIC and the most importantly, a large part of the schemes forpaving sanctions.

So, here Russia remains alone in a logical way out (for Moscow and Yerevan) - a demonstrative demonstration of force. Something like the "ceremonial passage of equipment" along the Azerbaijani border. The Russian media will actively show how the Russian Federation only "stopped the war", the Armenian media to say that the excessively aggressive moods of the Azerbaijani side. Everyone is satisfied.

On the external field, Sergiy Lavrov's Office will try to present what has happened as a demonstration of the Russian Federation to avoid (prevent) escalation and functionality of Russia as a force capable of stabilizing the situation in crisis regions. But there is another extremely important foreign policy. The absence of a real reaction of the CDU will demonstrates the internal emptiness of this organization.