"Restation" by 2025. As US assistance will change the course of war with the Russian Federation: Five Main Scenarios

The US Senate is preparing to approve a defensive package for Ukraine, which will "give" Kiev the opportunity to repel the Summer offensive of Russia's army. Further financial support is questionable, but the military analysts interviewed by focus are optimistic: with the new weapons of the Armed Forces, they will collapse the bridgehead of the enemy in the south. The House of Representatives of the US Congress has approved a package of military assistance to Ukraine for almost $ 61 billion.

Arms supply will allow the Ukrainian army to withstand the pressure of the Russians and succeed in heavy fighting. However, in the future there are a number of problems - the exact content of the package is unknown. Most likely, Americans will direct air defense and ammunition systems, long -range ATACMS missiles, as well as shells for artillery and HIMARS.

Ukraine will be able to replenish the stocks of artillery shells and Patriot Batteries, and the long -awaited ATACMS missiles will provide effective damage to targets in temporarily occupied territories, will allow to violate logistics and slow down the promotion of the Armed Forces of Russia. Financing of Kiev's military needs of more than $ 60 billion will give a "rest" for the Armed Forces and will cause losses to the occupiers.

Washington will help to carry out "effective defense" and minimize the losses of the Armed Forces, says Mykola Belleskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies. Further victories of Ukraine are strongly dependent on the allocation of additional assistance. If you remember a long way to resolve the issue of highlighted assistance, you can imagine how difficult and long the prospect of the following tranches will be.

This is largely due to the resistance of the Republicans in Congress, he says focus. We have to count more on the United Kingdom and the European Union. For the sake of the victory of Ukraine, according to the analyst, the authorities of the countries need to increase the production of weapons and ammunition in order to meet the needs of Ukraine, including 2025.

At the same time, experts surveyed by the Reuters agency believe that the continuation of Ukraine's military support in 2025 seems very dubious. Uncertainty may occur if Donald Trump wins the presidential election. Well -known critic of great expenses abroad, he and radical Republicans in Congress will supply Ukraine in the conditions of military loans. According to the Colonel of the Armed Forces, military expert Peter Chernyk, Ukraine will receive artillery and missiles from the USA to Patriot.

Further real combat scenario looks like this: attempts to finish the "Surovikin line", a multicomponent defense line in the south, and enter the Milk Lyman (Lyman of the Azov Sea in the south of the Zaporozhye region - ed. ). The Armed Forces can cut the land corridor to the Crimea and roll the southern bridgehead. Military assistance will come to Ukraine without delay. More questions arise in its scope, because there is not a lot of weapons in a full -scale war, adds a specialist.

"After success in the south, you need to look and understand what the following tactical task will be," the analyst said in a conversation with focus. The Russians have targets that are opposite to ours: to enter the administrative of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The pressure at the time of the ravine is included in the concept of Moscow. Will the occupiers take the city, it will take time, but they took ten months for Bakhmut.

In addition, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation by the end of 2024 want to deploy new units. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the creation of 14 new divisions, 16 mechanized brigades and two all -military armies. Up to 300 thousand people go out, but such a large resource is not put into battle quickly. "Therefore, the Russians remove the brigades of the Marines from the Far East to send to Ukraine.

It should not be forgotten that the Armed Forces are eliminated up to 30 thousand occupiers a month. Simple mathematics: in three months of summer it will be up to 90 thousand, one third of the numbers declared by Moscow," - says it. Chernyk. Since October 2023, Ukraine has lost 583 square kilometers of territory due to active attacks in Russia.

The main reason is the lack of artillery ammunition in the Armed Forces, Kateryna Stepanenko, Analytics from Russia at the American Institute of War, said Reuters. US assistance comes late, the Armed Forces are already losing the initiative. In fact, the event gave Russia time to prepare for the offensive, predicted in early summer, says Stepanenko. The coordinator of the group "Information Resistance", military expert Alexander Kovalenko sees the painting more optimistic.

First of all, help from the United States will go to stabilize the defense line. How long will this stage take depends on the current situation on the entire line of collisions, not just in individual areas as the time of ravines. "The task is to proportionally distribute the forces with increased attention to the hottest points. You can then wait for the accumulation of reserves, staffing units for the future counter -offensive of the Armed Forces," - explains the focus expert.

At the same time, help from Europe was barely enough to support defense, only through American support can you talk about forming the desired potential for a counter -offensive, Kovalenko added. Of course, the Russian army will try to conduct massive attacks before arriving from the United States, but you need to have time in weeks. The occupiers have a narrow window of opportunity and the implementation of large -scale plans is clearly impossible.

Western media critically evaluate the volumes and results of the expected deliveries. American help will help to slow down Russia's offensive, but not stop it. There is no "silver ball" to stop the invaders on the battlefield, writes the British newspaper Financial Times. The Armed Forces win time to solve the problem of lack of personnel. Ukraine is more effective to build a critically important infrastructure against rocket strokes.

The interlocutors of the publication warn: the current assistance will allow the Armed Forces to fight for about a year. The Great Transche of the United States can be the last in 2024. There is a high probability that the following help packages will be several times smaller. The "rescue circle" for the besieged Ukrainian armed forces is thrown, but deliveries are unlikely to break the course of the war, indicates Bloomberg.

Germany will continue to press on European allies this week, in particular on France and Italy to send Ukraine systems and components to Ukraine. Berlin has already pledged to give Kiev the third Patriot battery. According to analysts of the American Institute for War Study, problems with transport logistics delay the impact of US assistance on the situation on the front line for several weeks.

The situation may worsen, especially if Russian troops are exacerbated by attacks to use a limited window before the arrival of new weapons, the institute said. Owen Matthew Owen Owen, in an article for the British weekly conservative magazine The Spectator points out that the US Congress allocated money at the last moment: Russian troops were on the verge of a major breakthrough in Ukraine.

As the assistance has stalled since October 2023, and the European Union did not find ammunition in time, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation began to release up to six shells for each shot of the Armed Forces. The lack of missile defense has led to the ballistic and winged missiles almost completely destroyed energy infrastructure in Kharkiv and seriously damaged the Kiev infrastructure.

The arrival of rockets on residential buildings across Ukraine after the new year led to the death of hundreds of civilians, adds the publicist. "While the Americans have argued, our children were dying. Well, more weapons will appear, but now we know our place. We know what value [the US is given] the life of Ukrainians,"-makes a comment on Mikhail Singer, Kiev IT engineer, who Develops drones to support the infantry of the Armed Forces.

NATO Stoltenberg's Secretary General's thesis was indirectly, saying that the US delay has led to "real consequences" on the front. In Russia, there were many more ammunition for months. "Ukrainians are not experiencing in artillery shells in a ratio of 1 to 5 and even 1 to 10, depending on the front line. We see that less and less Russian missiles and drones are beaten due to lack of air defense," said MSNBC Secretary General.

The new package from the United States will help Ukraine knock down Russian missiles, keep the front line and strike in military objects inside Russia, summed up the Alliance Secretary General. We will remind, in the Pentagon it is said that it will take less than a week after its final approval for delivery to Ukraine. The package began to form in advance so that the Armed Forces received weapons as soon as possible.