Putin's Psychology: Why Crimea can be released by force

Among the variants of events in the war, which Vladimir Putin began against Ukraine in February 2022, is increasingly talking about the possible exit of Ukrainian troops to the administrative borders of Crimea and even about the release of the occupied Crimean peninsula from the Russian troops. Moreover, a number of experts claim that Crimea can be released as early as 2023. The forecasts during the war are a thankless thing.

However, it is obvious that it was Vladimir Putin's politics that led to the discussion about the force of liberation of Crimea, it was possible, - writes Vitaliy Portnikov for Crimea. The occupation and annexation of Crimea may well be attributed to one of the obvious personal success of the Russian president - if you can talk about the success of evil.

Putin managed to achieve the creation of a leadership in Kiev, which worked hard on dismantling of Ukrainian state institutions and law enforcement agencies. The escape of representatives of this leadership to Russia in 2014 practically paralyzed the Ukrainian state machine, made it impossible to counteract the occupation and annexation of Crimea. But at the same time, Putin's West managed to convince the imaginary "sacred" of the occupied peninsula for Russia.

Despite Russia's obvious violation of international law, the leaders of Western countries seemed to be ready to accept the annexation of Crimea - so that only Putin would not continue efforts to further destabilize Ukraine. When the invasion of the Ukrainian continent began in 2014, the time was irreversibly lost - although most of the representatives of Western elites (as most Ukrainians themselves) continued to live in the absolute misunderstanding of Putin's true intentions.

Even at serious international conferences, it was heard that Putin needed solely Crimea that Putin occupied the Donbas in order to distract from Crimea, which could be "exchanged" with the rejection of Crimea by the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine in the east of the country. The fact that Crimea and Donbas are just a stage behind the attempt to occupy the rest of the country, it seems that few people wanted to understand and recognize.

At the same time, in Kiev, it has always been said that the issue of returning Ukraine's control over Crimea is a matter of political and diplomatic decisions. That Ukraine does not want new military conflicts. That Russia itself should recognize the importance of restoring its obligations and returning to international law.

Even the very idea of ​​conducting the summits of the Crimean Platform, which caused such irritation in the Kremlin, was aimed at creating a tool of diplomatic and political pressure on the aggressor. The war changed everything. First, she convinced the Ukrainian leadership and society that there is no other way but the expulsion of the aggressor troops from the occupied territories.

Secondly, she was sure that she has destroyed the myth that Putin's aggressive actions are related to the desire to achieve the recognition of the Russian status of Crimea, not the conquest of all Ukraine. Third, it was destroyed-Putin himself-the myth of "sacred" and "exclusivity" of Crimea after four more Ukrainian regions were included in Russia.

And when I hear the statements that the liberation of Crimea from the invaders will lead to the worldwide catastrophe and the Third World War, I begin to wonder. Why is the liberation of the Kherson region, which from a Russian point of view is the same "subject of the Federation" as Crimea - not a catastrophe, but the liberation of Crimea is a catastrophe? It seems that there are no logical answers.

Of course, Vladimir Putin's politics often does not obey the laws of logic, and I do not argue: in 2023 everything can happen, anything we are afraid and everything we cannot even or we want to imagine now. But this is probably not related to the "sacredness" of Crimea, but with the peculiarities of political psychology of Vladimir Putin.