Putin's meat grinder: what actually prevents the head of the Kremlin from deciding to end the war

Donald Trump denied the information that during a recent meeting in the White House, he allegedly forced Volodymyr Zelensky to agree to the transfer of all of Donbas to the Russian Federation. "We think they should just stop on the lines where they are," the US president added while talking to reporters aboard Air Force One. "Let it (Donbas - Focus) be divided as it is. It is divided right now.

I think that 78% of the land has already been captured by Russia," the head of the White House also noted. In addition, he added, the parties may agree "on something later," thus hinting at the prospects for future negotiations on a peaceful settlement. As you know, Trump and Putin plan to meet in the near future to discuss this very issue in Budapest.

At the same time, the president of Ukraine has already expressed his readiness to join the summit of the leaders of the USA and the Russian Federation in the Hungarian capital.

Commenting on the prospects of future negotiations regarding the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war, political scientist and expert of the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism" Oleksandr Krayev, commenting to Focus: "Unfortunately, and this, in my opinion, is the key thesis that we need to talk about at the moment, the Russians have overtaken us. Putin's phone call to Trump, which happened a day before the meeting between the Ukrainian and American presidents, was an element of this overtaking.

The Russians realized a little earlier that for Trump the issue of "Tomahawks" is simply a matter of preparing the ground for negotiations. Just like tariffs, duties and any other threats are just preparations for the negotiation process and nothing more. The Russians, having understood this scheme, immediately proposed a meeting between the presidents of the USA and the Russian Federation in Budapest. So, the Russians picked up Trump's game and played on his emotions.

As a result, the issue of "Tomahawks" fell away by itself. " Currently, the expert believes, Donald Trump has clearly demonstrated that for him the issue of armed support to Ukraine is primarily a narrative issue: "That is, with the help of systematic threats, Trump wants to get the start of negotiations.

In addition, unfortunately, based on the fact of Trump's phone conversation with Putin and the meeting of the head of the White House with President Zelensky, it became obvious that the USA does not have a strategy for the Russian-Ukrainian war. Yes, Trump really has a desire to start negotiations between Putin and Zelensky, there is a desire to be a mediator, and that's it, period.

This state of affairs, frankly, is not very positive for us and refers to the negotiations in the Middle East, where the ceasefire regime has already been violated about forty times by both Hamas and the Israel Defense Forces, and Trump does not interfere. Why? Because he achieved his goal - they signed an agreement named after him? Signed. That's it, Trump doesn't need anything else. Unfortunately, Trump has the same attitude towards our problems.

" Stating that in the case of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the US president is trying in every way to avoid escalation, Oleksandr Krayev added: "Actually, that's why, when the Russians offered a direct dialogue, Trump refused the Tomahawks. " Thus, we should understand in advance that Trump will threaten anything, but in the end he will not do anything either now or after the signing of the cease-fire agreement.

That is, unfortunately, it is not necessary to expect that the States will be the guarantor of the ceasefire or even in some way control the implementation of this regime. " According to Oleksandr Kraev, as of now we are, speaking in chess terms, in a mitelspiel, when all the pawns are concentrated in the middle of the board, all the main pieces have been played and everything can go either way.

"On the one hand, if Russia now backs down, acting brazenly and provocatively, and that's how the bastards like to present themselves, then the chances that Trump will give us Tomahawks will increase significantly, and we must not stop insisting on this. On the other hand, if Putin continues to successfully flirt with Trump, then their meeting in Budapest will cancel any arms deliveries to us from the US for a certain time.

However, we are now in a situation that is not favorable either to us or to the Russians. In fact, the situation is favorable only to Trump, because everyone will go to him with proposals, trying to get him on their side," the expert summarizes.

At the same time, political scientist Yuriy Bohdanov in a conversation with Focus makes the following emphasis: "I believe that, as of now, a great achievement of the president and Ukrainian diplomacy in general is that we managed to avoid any obligations to the Americans regarding a peaceful settlement with the Russians according to their scenario.

But the future position of Washington will largely depend on how Rubio's planned meeting with Lavrov, which will precede Trump's talks with Putin in Budapest, goes and ends. In principle, the scenario is currently positive for us, because without some commitments from the Russians, there will be no movement in the peace process, and that is at least something.

On the other hand, we have already made sure that Witkoff, who is very close to Trump, is an open enemy of Ukraine, and this is quite dangerous. " Meanwhile, official Kyiv, according to the expert, should continue to insist on constructive cooperation with America, "because, unlike Russia, we are a reliable partner that can give the USA a lot in terms of military technology and act as a European guarantor of security.

" "The main thing we have to do now is to keep the same line that was before the next admiration (or imitation of admiration) of Trump by Putin after a telephone conversation with him. In general, in the case of the American president, we will have to flirt a little all the time, maintaining as polite a communication as possible, but not yielding at the same time on fundamental issues, in particular, agreeing to negotiations on Russian terms," ​​says Yuriy Bogdanov.

He is also convinced that Putin will not be able to receive any bonuses from Trump in the near future. "Despite the fact that the current US president sympathizes with various dictators, including Putin, he still does not have the room for maneuver regarding pressure on Ukraine that he had at the beginning of the year, because this is categorically not perceived by his voters.

Our relationship with Trump and company resembles the principle: one step forward, two steps back, then two steps forward, one step back and so on. And given Trump's psychotype and his views on politics, unfortunately, this will continue to be the case. But, at least, our positions are now much stronger than they were tentatively in February, when Trump openly demanded Ukrainian capitulation in order to play tricks with Putin," emphasizes Yuriy Bohdanov.

According to his belief, Putin is not going to conduct any constructive negotiations regarding the establishment of peace, and Trump, on the other hand, is still in the world of his illusions, "where he is about to persuade the Kremlin dictator to stop the war. " "Trump must finally understand that America does not need the role of a mediator, but the role of a country that effectively helps to force Russia to real negotiations and adequacy.

That is, the role of the US is not mediation, but leadership, which Trump is currently willingly refusing. What he is guided by at the same time is not exactly clear. Probably, with some idea of ​​what is beautiful," concludes Yuriy Bohdanov. Political scientist Oleksandr Palii is convinced that no significant changes in the peace negotiation process should be expected.

"Ukraine is ready to stop "where everything is", but Putin is not, because he will simply be torn apart after that inside his own country. That is, it is extremely important for Putin to kill all Russian militants, so that they do not return home embittered. Simply put, Putin turned this meat grinder into a means of his own survival, because otherwise the famous action of his cook Prigozhin would seem to him to be just an easy walk.

And I will remind you that during Prigozhin's rebellion, the entire Russian leadership, including Putin, fled Moscow," argues the analyst in a conversation with Focus. The general picture, the expert states, looks like "we don't have to expect anything serious from America now. " "The fact is that Trump is only interested in his own positions - he does not care what will happen to America, and even more so to Ukraine.

That is, Trump is a person who pursues a personalist policy in individual interests, not in the national interests of the United States. In such conditions, there is no need to talk about any kind of stability, because it turns out that the first person to reach Trump plays the first violin. But this "song" is very unstable and constantly changes," the political scientist notes.

In general, according to Oleksandr Pali, official Kyiv should, while continuing the opportunistic cooperation with the USA, act as "as if America does not exist" and make a key bet on the leading European players, in particular France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, as well as neighboring Poland.