"For Putin, the war in Ukraine is not only - or for the most part - about Ukraine," the message reads. According to Putin people, for him an invasion of Ukraine - as one front in a conflict with the West. For the Kremlin leader, success in the battlefield may not be enough. To win the "real enemies" in Brussels and Washington, he may feel that he needs to attack a NATO member.
Russian elites believe that Estonia and Latvia could be the most likely target, as a large number of Russians live in these Baltic countries. The media said that Moscow can follow a "familiar game" when initially FSB staff forces Russian -speaking residents of one of the two countries to declare oppression by the "neo -Nazi government" and the need for helping the Kremlin. In response, the Armed Forces will cross the border and take control of municipalities in the eastern part of any country.
In particular, the Estonian city of Narva, where the Russian -speaking population prevails. The occupation will challenge NATO, whose principle is an attack on one of the members is an attack on all. Yes, Putin's occupation would check if the Alliance was ready to risk the Third World War in a few square kilometers on the border with the Russian Federation.
The elite of the Russian Federation believes that NATO is not the response of Russia, because the West is tired and divided, and therefore less interested in the fight against the Russians. They are convinced that the Alliance countries are allegedly not united to protect the attacked country.
We will remind, on June 28 the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation stated that the growth activity of UAV USA over the Black Sea indicates greater involvement of NATO countries in the war on the side of Ukraine. This, in turn, increases the risk of direct confrontation of the Alliance with Russia. On June 20, the media reported that a hybrid front was opened in the Baltic States without a collision line. In particular, Moscow conducts operations against a number of states in the region.
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