Israeli attack on Iran: Why does oil expensive and how Russia wins

According to Bloomberg, immediately after Israel has made a series of blows to Iran, the price of Brent exceeded $ 78 per barrel. The jump became the greatest growth a day from March 2022 after the full -scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine. Currently, prices have receded to $ 73-75 and as of June 13, according to the analysis of the Marketwatch/AP Finport, Brent oil prices are $ 73. 18 (+5. 5%).

 The focus found out what would be with the price of oil further, which the main event is able to push them up and who wins it. According to experts, the reaction of the markets to the war of Iran and Israel was more emotional than reasonable, at least in the short term. Andriy Shevchyshyn, a member of the Ukrainian Society of Financial Analysts, also indicated the short -lived focus prices for focus oil. "The market has reacted quickly enough and currently rolled significantly.

The initial market response has shown an increase of 13%, but then it recovered quickly, and now the increase is only about 4%. The price has risen to $ 78 per barrel, and now decreased to about 73," he said. The market has reacted fairly quickly and the prices have now swept away significantly.

The initial market reaction showed an increase of 13%, but then it has recovered quickly, and now the increase is only about 4% meanwhile, the director of the analytical department of the investment company Eavex Capital Dmitry Churin predicts that a conflict in the Middle East can provoke a jump in oil for a larger. oil. Experts also emphasize the main factors that can influence the rise in oil prices.

According to Andriy Shevchyshyn, it is the duration of hostilities and a potential blocking of a key maritime path for export of oil from the Persian Gulf. "It seems that the risks were largely overestimated. The main factor that will affect the further development of the situation will be the duration of hostilities in the Middle East and a potential blocking or other threat to the Ormuza Strait, through which the lion's share of oil flows passes.

It is through the Ormouz Strait that a large number of tankers carry large amounts of crude oil passes through the Oil, which is 40% of the world's oil exports. "It is a critical route, and its condition has a significant impact on global markets. At the same time, given the position of Iran, we can assume that the country does not seek the escalation of conflict, not interested in the war or in the forging development of nuclear technologies.

The confrontation, oil prices will fly up to $ 100 per barrel, "Shevchyshyn added. However, as the expert emphasized, Iran is unlikely to exacerbate and block the strait, because it will not be to be severely response to the countries of the world, including the United States. "For the United States, inflation is a critical issue . . . In fact, this conflict is unprofitable to anyone, the Russian," Shevchyshyn said.

Russia really has a number of geopolitical and economic benefits from escalation between Iran and Israel, since the Russian budget is critical of energy exports: oil and gas. And the conflict in the Middle East automatically increases the oil risk premium, which leads to an increase in oil quotes Brent and Russian Urals.

Conflict in the Middle East can provoke a jump in oil prices up to $ 100 per barrel, which will be a certain shock for the global economy, because the Middle East provides about 30% of the world's oil supply, expert Dmitry Churin is predicted even by the sanction oil of the Russian Federation for sale, but if the base price is also raising, then the Brent price is also raised.

At the same time, according to Dmitry Churin, if the price of Brent oil increased by 7% to the level of $ 73 per barrel due to the strike of Israel on Iran on June 13, then the price of Russian oil increased by a modest 1. 8% to $ 65 per barrel. "Russia is really favorable for high energy prices, but thanks to sanctions, the price of Russian oil is 15% lower than the world prices," the expert reminds.

It should be noted that the escalation in the Middle East significantly diverts the attention of the West from Ukraine, and forces the USA, the EU and the UN to redistribute diplomatic and military resources. Therefore, if the United States and their allies are drawn into a de -escalation in Iran, then the support of Ukraine will be given much less attention, which is beneficial of the Russian Federation.

Therefore, this can be called a strategic advantage for Russia, which seeks to delay the war and tire the event. Russia was really profitable for the price of oil to increase significantly. After all, it faced serious budgetary problems: oil and gas revenues have declined sharply, funding is carried out mainly through emission mechanisms, and the remains of the National Welfare Fund have become actually the last source of resources. In this situation, the main weak link for the Kremlin was oil.

And Russia probably tried to compensate for this problem through the escalation in the Middle East - a conflict that could sharply heat the market and give the right price pulse. Russia was really profitable for the price of oil to grow significantly "the script began to be implemented. But it seems that Russia was expecting to wait for negotiations between the US and Iran, planned for June 15. Moscow may have hoped to play the role of mediator or at least be part of a new regional.

The map that Russia was now losing power. Currently, there are two major red flags for the oil market leaders, which will indicate the escalation of the situation with prices: how long the confrontation between Israel and Iran will be, as well as the potential blocking of the Oil Road of the Ormouz Strait. "It is the most important for the oil market, and accordingly for Russia.

After all, it is the Strait of the Ormouz Strait that became the most painful point on the oil pricing map," Shevchyshyn added. As for Iran himself, according to the expert, Tehran did not really sought to resolve a military conflict, so the situation is gradually stabilizing. "The markets are likely to overestimate the geopolitical risk," says financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn, and makes several key arguments that confirm it.