In favor of Russia. Why EU countries abandon Ukrainian grain and what will happen next

Ukrainians who perceive the EU during a full -scale war with Russia as a reliable partner and donor of Ukraine in the spring of 2023 were shocked by the ban on Ukrainian grain imports by individual countries after mass protests by local farmers.

We are talking about the following precedents: "Logistics problems in Central Europe have caused the accumulation of grain warehouses and a sharp fall in prices, which caused protests from agricultural workers and even the resignation of the Polish agricultural minister," Euronews writes. According to the European Business Association (EBA), the ban of countries has in fact led to a complete stop of exports of Ukrainian grain and other agro -products to the European market.

The Association add: traditional export routes for Ukrainian agricultural products earlier (before the war) have not passed through Poland, but currently 60-70% of agricultural cargoes that follow the transit through Poland's territory into ports of Gdansk, Hdyn, Szczecin, Svinouay, intended for recipients EU members. The ban on transit and import is hurt by the Ukrainian agricultural sector and destabilizes the situation in agricultural markets.

"Such solutions in the long run will reduce production in Ukraine, which in turn will affect the increase in global grain prices. Given that Europe is a significant importer of grain, it will inevitably affect the prices of the EU's domestic market for meat, milk Products and more, " - Andrei Booth, Director of the Department of Foreign Economic Activity of the Agrotrade Group predicts the possible development of the situation.

According to Nikita Larionova, an adviser to Arzinger's law company, those Ukrainian agricultural companies that are not presented in the grain initiative and do not export grain because of the deep -water ports of southern Ukraine are available.

Andriy Booth adds that the closure of one of the three ways of export increases the load on the other two - the ports of the Danube and the Grain Corridor, while the latter works very badly because of sabotage of Russian representatives who refuse to carry out inspections.

"According to statements that are heard in the Russian Federation, the corridor will work until May 18, and if it is not continued, only the Danube will remain, which will not be enough to meet the needs of export Opportunities can return to the state of April 2022, which has been one of the most difficult periods for the agricultural sector since 1991. " Recall that a year ago, grain prices in Ukraine in the domestic market fell below cost, and farmers were on the verge of survival.

The prerequisites for banning the import of Ukrainian grain by several European countries have certainly created a large -scale logistics crisis that arose due to Russia's aggression against Ukraine.

Taras Dumich, the head of the Ukrainian Office of the International Law Firm Wolf Theiss, believes that the present situation with grain is similar to the artificial migration crisis that Russia has created for EU countries over the last few years, provoking mass migration of refugees from Africa and Middle East - respectively, And the true culprit of the grain crisis is Russia.

"Ukrainian manufacturers in the conditions of rupture of ordinary logistics chains have been in a difficult position - seaports within the grain initiative work at half capacities, and the ports of the Danube cannot absorb all the excessive supply of grain. Moreover, existing logistics capacities were built and expanded, "Andrew Booth explains.

According to Nikita Larionov, the EU countries were not the final point of destination of Ukrainian grain, which usually followed transit to European ports, from where the products went to end consumers - to Africa and Asia.

"But at least some of the Ukrainian grain remained in EU countries due to its significantly lower value compared to the local product, which, in fact, caused the outrage One can only guess - there are thoughts that at least partially it can be the consequences of the so -called "black" exports without taxes.

Experts say that the dumping prices of Ukrainian suppliers have eventually led to a situation where partner countries mentioned their own economic interests, where one of the main ones was the support of their own manufacturer, not an increase in the foreign exchange earnings of Ukrainian companies.

"Although we, Ukrainians, are unpleasant to hear, the policies of other countries are not Ukrainian -centric, and their politicians and government officials should take into account internal national interests, even if they can not coincide with our interests," Taras Dumich sums up. Focus surveyed experts hope that the practice of limiting the import of Ukrainian grain will not be widespread in other European countries.

"The ban on import of Ukrainian grain is, first and foremost, a political decision in view of the electorate and close elections," says Andrei But. "But such unilateral prohibitions are contrary to not only WTO rules, association agreements, but also EU internal law Customs policy should be taken in Brussels, not in Warsaw or Budapest.

" According to the focus interlocutor, the practice of trade restrictions should not spread further, as such actions are splitting the EU and working into Russia, while the EU is generally a significant importer of grain, and Ukraine is one of the largest suppliers to the markets of Italy, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands and Germany and Germany. .

According to Andrew Booth, not the best, but a compromise solution is to maintain the possibility of transit of Ukrainian grain through neighboring countries deep into the EU. And it was this that the Ukrainian side has already managed to agree with Poland as a result of negotiations.

According to Nikita Larionova, the transit of Ukrainian grain in the EU territory will not adversely affect the local market and local producers, while monitoring compliance with the conditions of the customs regime should be provided by local authorities. But this is only a temporary semi -mira, because, as the focus has already emphasized, the main cause of the crisis is the resolved by the Russian Federation.