New Year's strikes in Ukraine: How Shahda learned to bypass the air defense and what can you answer

Russia forces shock drones to fly over difficult terrain, bypassing mobile fire groups, and circling in the sky, discharging the SCR before launching rockets. Experts told focus what it gives the occupiers and what to expect. Since December 29, Russia has been conducting massive shelling of Ukraine, launching rockets and shock drones of Shahd. The focus understood how drones have changed, why they became more dangerous for Ukrainians and whether they can be better prepared for them.

According to official statistics of the Air Forces Command of Ukraine, Russia launched 184 drones-Kamikadze Shahd in five days: 349 such drones were launched for comparison. Ukrainian military, radio technologies specialist Sergei Bez -Kindnov with the call sign "Flash" on his Facebook page wrote that Shahd's attack on January 1 was very different from the previous ones - the drones were constantly maneuvering and flying "semicircles" without direct route.

In addition, the Russians again used Shahd black, which is harder to see at night. At the same time, there was an unusual sound of the sounds of the work of mobile groups that knock down UAV. "What can I say. Our enemy learns. Does anyone analyze this? Shahledi may have flew strange routes due to the preparation previously carried out.

Well-known Austrian military analyst Tom Cooper wrote on his site on December 29 that the last three months, if not longer, the Russians have used drones-Kamikadze to "mapping". The Armed Forces forced the drones to fly over Ukraine, monitored the reaction of Ukrainian air defense forces and found out what anti-aircraft missile complexes protect the objects that interest them. To do this, scattering ammunition is flying a long curved trajectory that resembles a semicircle.

For example, Tom Cooper showed a map with approximate routes "Shahanedov" according to the data on June 25 from the Ukrainian edition of texty. org. ua: drones flew from the Crimea, flew over the Nikolaev area in the north direction, then returned to the southwest and finally. to Odessa. According to the analyst, the Russians make such routes, since Medium and long -range SCRs depend on the radars for guidance, making them knock down a large number of Russian missiles and UAVs.

The Russians want to catch the air defense forces by surprise, hitting the drones "from the flank" or "from the rear. " To do this, they look for complexes of the Armed Forces with the help of communications, electronic and radio intelligence (Comint, Elint and Sigint), as well as with the help of human intelligence, that is, espionage. The fact is that any radar that radiates can be detected at a distance that is approximately twice the maximum range of detection.

For example: a radar capable of detecting targets up to 100 kilometers is found to be Elint/Sigint at a distance of 200 kilometers. By learning the location of the air defense complexes and marking them on the map, Russian troops can direct Shahd or missiles outside the zones of their detection systems to impress the goals. Drones have a big advantage in this case, as they can be programmed not to fly not a straight line, but a complex route with turns in the right places.

"To date, they obviously think that they have gathered enough information to strike. And that's what they did last night," the expert said, commenting on the attack on the night of December 29. Military expert and observer Mikhail Zhirokhov also suggested that the Russians used "Shahda" or, better to say, "geranium", since their production is already localized in the Russian Federation, just to "open" the air defense system.

It is inappropriate to use the Patriot, Irir-T missiles, or other complexes, so Ukrainian SAC calculations are missed without responding to them, and are given to the redemption of mobile firing groups specially designed for the control of UAVs. "In any case, there are radar stations, and at the same time as Shahmed's span, the Russians with the help of satellite intelligence or radio intelligence aircraft record such means.

Then, on the basis of the analysis, they conclude that there is a area where the air defense is concentrated," he explained. Mikhail Zhirokhov added that mobile groups cover only some objects and cannot protect literally everything in Ukraine. Therefore, the Russians are looking for goals that are not covered by any air defense means, and then try to attack them with ShahED.

"This is caused by such complex routes, they launch" Shahda "from the occupied Crimea, and they fly to the Chernihiv region," the expert emphasized. The military-political observer of the "Information Resistance" group Alexander Kovalenko in a conversation with "Focus" noted that the Russian army used a rather predictable method of attack by the drones of "Shahaned", laying their trajectories over impassable terrain, such as rivers, boys, where mobile groups cannot pass.

In addition, the Russians often forced UAV to fly circles so that they remain in the airspace as long as possible and distracted the air defense. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were able to synchronize the presence of "Shahaneda" in the sky with the launch of rockets, so that there is a minimal pause between them. This approach disperses attention, provokes the use of anti-aircraft missile complexes and discharges them.

"When there is a threat of an object, but it cannot To increase the likelihood of breakthrough. But judging by the efficiency of counteraction, they failed, " - summarized Alexander Kovalenko. In his opinion, it is possible to combat the new tactics of trigger ShahED by knocking them over the difficult terrain, but Ukraine requires appropriate means.

If we talk about water obstacles, you can use machine gun boats and portable anti-aircraft missile complexes (MAZRCs), which are equal to ground groups by capacity. Air basing technique, such as light shock helicopters with CBRA or Viper, may be more effective against ShahED. "The US Navy occasionally sells them as excess property, usually auctions are conducted every spring, last year two squadron bought Bahrain. Ukraine needs to be in line and buy them.

They are not the most effective on the battlefield, but as a means of intercepting drones-Kamikadze Useful. Even six helicopters would increase the efficiency of intercepting, " - said a military analyst. Turbo-screw aircraft such as the EMB 314 Super Tucano assault aircraft can still fight Shahmed. These are now armed with Brazil's armies and the United States is used, so Ukraine may well buy them.

Helicopters and planes would be a versatile option because they can fly over any locality: though above the rivers, though above the swamps. In general, says Alexander Kovalenko, it is very important for Ukraine to increase the number of means of echelorated air defense air defense and average radius. In the commentary of OBOZ. UA, the military-political observer of the "Information Resistance" group drew attention to one common feature .

According to his observations, Russia uses drones not only to defeat goals, but also to detect and exhaust the air defense, as it distracts the attention of the military with its unpredictable maneuvers. "At the same time a mole (Russian occupation troops, ed.

) So synchronized launches, flight trajectory and routes to keep Shahd-131/31/136 in the airspace (PP) as long as possible-reducing the time between the destruction of the last drone-Kamikadze The airspace of the first rockets, ”the expert explained. As a result, the Ukrainian air defense forces have little time to recharge, so the Russian Armed Forces missiles are more likely to break through. Defense forces have to use different interception algorithms, given these threats.