He explained that with the beginning of the Ukrainian counter -offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation began to operate on new tactics. Russian invaders specifically allowed the defenders to enter the minefields, then counter -attack there with tanks and anti -tank controlled weapons on flanks. "After Ukrainian technique is knocked out, Russians use mortars and artillery against infantry.
If Kiev pass through mine fields and get into trenches, Russians often leave their combat positions and undermine ready -made charges to kill the first wave of attackers," the analyst added. . According to him, as a result, Ukraine suffered great losses on the front line. However, the Armed Forces managed to adapt its own tactics. The fighters began to penetrate the positions of the invaders to confuse them and hit the flanks before trying to break defense.
"These methods have reduced Ukrainian losses, but the necessary planning and intelligence make this process slow. Ukrainians fight 700 meters at a time, and this gives their opponents a chance to restart. But accelerating the process leads to unacceptable speed of equipment loss," Votling emphasized. The expert wrote that the Ukrainian forces used high -precision missiles to eliminate hostile counter -batteries, and learned to find and destroy Russian guns.
"This systematic erosion of Russian artillery has become a turning point: for the first time in the war, Ukrainian howitzers can be constant fire on Russian positions. It also means that Moscow - although destroys Ukrainian technique in minefields - has less artillery capacity to kill infantry, which It is of them. As a result, Ukrainian troops manage to capture Russian positions, even when their equipment is open, "Wtling said.
He explained that the Russian army caused significant losses of defense forces due to armored vehicles, but at the same time made the technique more vulnerable. On machines of the Armed Forces, located near the front line, at night there are drones with jet grenades. "The destruction of artillery, armored vehicles, radars and ammunition leads to the fact that the Moscow infantry receives less support.
However, the Russian units continue to fiercely fighting, and the losses of Ukrainian equipment remain high," the analyst emphasized. He suggested that at some point the number of infantry in the Russian Federation would be too small, and the support of artillery and armored vehicles is insufficient. In this case, the defense of the Russian invaders "may fall apart. " The expert also noted that in the case of dry weather the promotion of Ukraine will last until the beginning of November.
"This will be a critical moment: then progress will depend on which side has been better prepared for winter fights," Wotling added. According to him, for Ukraine the rates are high. In the event of a breakthrough in the Armed Forces, the defenders will be able to liberate a large part of the territories and force Moscow to transfer to the advanced army. At the same time, if there is no significant promotion, the Russian Federation will be able to prepare new units and "return the initiative".
"In any case, Kiev will need constant international assistance. But by the fall, the conflict trajectory will be understood," Votling summed up. Dr. Jack Wotling is a senior researcher in the Land War Department at the Royal Institute of the Joint Forces (Rusi). It works with the UK's military on developing operations, assessing the future of operations and operational analysis of modern conflicts. Wotling is a doctor of philosophy. He explored different countries, including Iraq and Ukraine.
The expert is an international researcher at Wilson Center in Washington. We will remind, the spokeswoman of OK "South" Natalia Humeniuk stated that collaborators and invaders in the Crimea only create the visibility that the peninsula with Russia for a long time. Meanwhile, the highest "officials" have already taken out their relatives. Deputy Minister of Defense Volodymyr Gavrilov stated that Ukraine has the ability to destroy the Russian fleet in the Black Sea.
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