The war on exhaustion began: what a new reality looks like and how to adapt to Ukraine

What has changed? In fact, Ukraine and Russia have removed any fuse on critical infrastructure. The only "red line" seems to be strokes on the oil infrastructure of the Novorossiysk and critical port infrastructure of Odessa. Why? The main reason - the United States seems to have finally determined that their economic goal is to completely extract the Russian Federation from the European oil and gas market.

The proposals of the Kremlin (Dmitrieva) on the Arctic and Rare Earth seems to be delayed to the side. Not thrown away, but delayed until the moment when the Kremlin decides to negotiate, not to drive. And now Washington's goal is to wage an energy war with other people's hands. There are several these "hands". On the one hand, these are Europeans who made the decision to accelerate and give up Russian energy by 2027.

On the other, these are the Gulf countries that gradually increase oil production and trim the possibilities of Russians in the markets of India and China (increasing production will slightly reduce the price and make Russian oil less competitive). And finally, the third "hand" is Ukrainian strikes on the refinery and the transport infrastructure of the Russian oil and gas complex. Our opportunities today will not stop the same infrastructure, but are thousands of cuts.

Could it be different? The turning point was, in fact, Putin's refusal to go to Trump's proposals and agree to certain concessions. Putin was genuinely convinced that he would be able to drive Trump by his nose. It should also be understood that Putin believes that he defeated Trump in the plan that he won a few months when he can do almost anything. His bet (I would say, blind faith) on three things: the front will fall, Ukraine will freeze, Europe is scared.

It will not happen, but it lives in these realities. Plus, he stopped thinking of the categories of long time. Its planning horizon is 5-6 months. Valdai confirmed the lack of strategy and myth rate. Here is only one quote from Putin: "Nobody feels safe. We need to go back to sources. " This is Abracadabra, the essence of which - agree on my conditions, which I change in the course of negotiations.

In short, the following processes occur in Russia: the war came out (perhaps finally) from its own military logic and went into the stage of economic pollutical logic of major countries. This change seems to be almost unclear in Kiev. I remain in the opinion that the end of the war will depend largely on US-China negotiations. Unfortunately, the likelihood of mobilization in Russia is increasing. We need to prepare for the deterioration of the energy situation.