Another peacemaker. Why Erdogan again wants to become a head between Russia and Ukraine

Turkish President Recep TaiP Erdogan after a pause seeks to return to the active talk process against Ukraine, affirming his diplomatic impact. He proposes to negotiate with Russia and seeks to freeze the war. For what reasons he studied focus.

"The peaceful plans that exclude Russia will not produce any results," Turkish President Erdogan recently said, talking about the global "Summit of Peace" in Switzerland, about the "Peace Formula" of President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky, which is planned this year. He again offered Turkey as a platform for negotiations, one of which sees the Russian Federation.

Such statements of the President of this Black Sea country are not surprising, all are known not only to Turkey's ambitions as a key trainer, but also to its dependence on Russia. Official Ankara has been actively trading with Moscow all this time, in particular, he buys energy and has debts for Russian Russian gas. But he wants to show himself an independent player in the diplomatic field, supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity and demanding to return Crimea.

On March 8, 2024, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky visited Turkey. It happened for the first time after his trip in July. Then he brought with him five Azovstal Defense Commanders, who were released from Russian captivity in September 2022. Among them is Svyatoslav Palamar (call sign "Kalina") and Denis Prokopenko (call sign "Redis"). They, like others, were in Turkey under the personal guarantees of President Recep Erdogan and had to stay there until the end of the war.

To this step, Russia reacted sharply: the Kremlin stated that the return of commanders to Ukraine was a violation of the agreements in both the Ukrainian and the Turkish side, no one warned Russia about it. After the incident between the Ukrainian and Turkish side, there was no higher contact. Turkish diplomats have never been in Ukraine. So now experts note that this visit was made by Zelensky. Another thing is that it is difficult to talk about its results.

While the Ukrainian side reported that Zelensky not only met with the Turkish leader and spoke about the "formula of peace", the organization of "Peace Summit", the safety of navigation in the Black Sea, but also had contact with representatives of the defense-industrial complex of Turkey Projects in the defense sphere, Turkish noted that Ankara will continue to work on the revival of the Black Sea Grain Agreement, the conclusion of which between Kiev and Moscow Turkey has reached together with the UN.

For Turkey, the key task is to establish a dialogue between Ukraine and Russia. That is why not only Erdogan, but other Turkish politicians from time to time hint that Ukraine has been talking to negotiations with the Russian Federation. In particular, Turkish Foreign Minister Khakan Fidan stated the need for the fastest ceasefire in Ukraine. Experts say such perseverance indicates that Erdogan receives certain signals from Putin.

"And Putin repeats these signals almost daily-in public and diplomatic channels. He says that Russia is ready for peace talks,"-said Maxim Yali, a professor at the focus of the National Aviation University of International Relations at Focus. But the analyst is convinced that not only Russia's statements are crucial, Erdogan relies on a general context.

"Turkey is watching the situation on the collision line, on the front that is not favorable to Ukraine, increasing the pressure of our Western partners due to the lack of weapons, calls for negotiations at both the official and unofficial levels. They made a noise, - the expert continues. - Against this background, Turkey is trying to take advantage and regain the status of the winner.

But since China has released its so -called peace plan, the initiative on its side, Beijing also wants to become the main border. It is no coincidence China's Foreign Ministry from the settlement of the Ukrainian-Russian War recently resumed its tour-went to Europe, Moscow, Kiev. Therefore, a serious struggle, both official and unofficial, is underway for this status. The so -called peace plans in 2022.

The war in Ukraine is the largest conflict of Europe since the Second World War, and everyone wants to get the Lavra of the Peacemaker. " Turkey, and indeed, partly pushes Russia. Due to the role of the mediator, she received and continues to receive huge discounts on Russian energy, seeks to obtain the status of a gas hub, to build a nuclear power plant.

In the end, even if all the attempts to plant Russia and Ukraine at the talk table will be unsuccessful, everyone in the world, according to Erdogan, will know that Turkey has tried to do it. Currently, experts say that Ankara is already proud that in 2022 she managed to gather two sides in her perovines, which almost managed to sign a "peace" document.

At the same time, Turkey always declares that it is not interested in the meaning of negotiations, she tries not to interfere, but only to provide a platform for negotiations. Like, while everyone else supplied weapons, Turkey tried to stop the war. "Turkey has declared its desire to become a mediator when Russia proceeded from a statement of grain agreement. Turkey pursues its own interests, and it was still quite good.

At the beginning of the full -scale invasion of Erdogan it was quite good at the beginning There was a crisis of relations with France, the United States and other Western partners. Due to this, it increased its status as a diplomat, mediator, and Turkey as an important country as a whole in the international arena, "says Professor of the Department of International Relations of the National Aviation University.

Therefore, Turkey is interested in the renewed negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and the frozen conflict. And it is on the Turkish playground. There are several reasons for this except for the leading role of the cottage. And they all meet its national interests. "Ukraine is not interested in it," says Maxim Yali. "In 2023, after Russia's release from the grain agreement, Ukraine exports almost the same volumes, without the participation of Russia. The goods go through Romania, partly land.

It cares for Ukrainian loads as before. And when Ukrainian vessels went from Ukrainian ports or they came to them, Russia looked at everything. This increased its status in the Black Sea. Putin was proud of this, he was sure that everything under his control. There is no interest in the corridor that will only give the image of Russia and Turkey. " In addition, there is a mutual curiosity of the military-industrial complex.

In particular, Turkey has developed its own Kaan fighter, Ukrainian manufacturers are involved in tenders for the supply of engines for them. "Turkey also sells weapons to Ukraine, earning money. It is clear to the results of Zelensky's visit to Ankara," Yali adds. Therefore, it is obvious that Turkey will continue to offer itself as a cockroach. She says she is a NATO country, but with contacts in the Russian Federation, so perfect in the role of moderator and peacemaker.

"There are also Erdogan's personal considerations. A person who will help to conclude a settlement agreement between Ukraine and Russia will probably be nominated for the Nobel Prize. This is a dream of any policy-to capture his name in history. Erdogan is no exception here. So He tries to successfully combine personal interests with the interests of the state, economic and geopolitical, "Yali notes. Meanwhile, Turkey is preparing for the future visit of Vladimir Putin. It was planned in February.

Erdogan now says that he is counting on the visit of the Russian colleague after holding municipal elections in the country, appointed on March 31. "On Friday (March 8, 2024-Ed. ) We received President of Ukraine Mr Zelensky in Istanbul. After the elections, we will accept President of Russia Mr Putin," Erdogan said during a traditional Iiftar dinner during Ramadan ambassadors. Putin's visit, and the pressure on Ukraine in negotiations was recently discussed during a diplomatic forum in Antalya.

Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov was invited to him. He was among the main guests, from the stage told of "Nazis in Ukraine". But Thor-official came not only to speak publicly, but to negotiate with the Turkish side about Ukraine. Russia is profitable to promote its narratives on negotiations. At the same time, the EU reminds Turkey of Putin's arrest warrant, which was issued by the International Criminal Court (ICS) on March 17, 2023.

"Putin is wanted by the International Criminal Court, he has an arrest warrant, and he is a brutal aggression against Ukraine, European stability and global order based on rules, and we hope that our Turkish partners are aware of it," he said earlier. Representative of the EU Foreign Policy Service.