New Medvedchuk and "manual" parties of the Russian Federation: Why can the Kremlin influence in Ukraine return to Ukraine

The Kremlin prepares the ground for creating a political project aimed at the "pro -Russian voter" in Ukraine. Such conclusions are made by the authorities by analyzing criticism in their address. Focus found out whether Russia could repeat the Final with the "PPZZ" and "the opposition" tired of the war by the voter. In July 2022, Ukraine was banned from the activities of the Main Pro -Russian Party of OPZZ, closely related to the Kremlin.

Some exceptors were suspected in the state community, others were left with the attention of special services. And those who were able to preserve the deputy's mandate in the Verkhovna Rada, according to colleagues, rejected sympathy for Russia and actively help the front. Representatives of the authorities have repeatedly spoke that the Kremlin does not leave attempts to exert political influence in Ukraine, despite the ongoing war.

According to NSDC Secretary Alexei Danilov, the FSB of the Russian Federation seeks to form an agent network, which in the future can become a political project focused on the "pro -Russian -minded voter". "The signs of such activity are the sharp activation of various" experts "," reconnaissance actors "and other kind of scammers in promoting the pro-Russian agenda.

They at this point cry about the" failure " Exit to the borders of 1991), give advice on how to fight the Armed Forces, give counterfeit insides about "conflicts" among military-political leadership, urge to accept "good Russians" and eventually hint that with Russia it is necessary to negotiate, "Danilov said. The NSDC secretary added that Ukrainian law enforcement agencies carefully monitor the manifestations of such hostile actions, revealing and terminating them.

And Ukrainians were advised to show a "high degree of information neatness" and "not to dirty the products of Russian information" life ". The basis of any political project is three key components: who will lead it, who is ready to finance and most importantly-is the electoral base. According to experts, to revive the "PZZ" or similar projects with anti -Ukrainian rhetoric and a powerful media, even if there is a sympathetic voter, it is unlikely.

Politicians simply will not go to such a risk to avoid suspicion of state community or collaboration. "All pro -Russian parties were banned in court, the mechanism was justified. And without the media, to speak of a serious restoration of the pro -Russian political field, I would not. The label of "pro -Russianness" will hang on them, "the political analyst Oleg Posternak says in a conversation with focus.

Over the past year, the number of people who believe in the split of power and the country's willingness to make concessions of Russia has increased. This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). The proportion of those who believe in a conflict between the political leadership of the country and the command of the army increased from 14 to 32% from September 2022 to October 2023.

And those who believe in the readiness of Ukraine to make concessions of Russia - from 5 to 12%. Experts say that against the background of a long war, the number of those who feel fatigue from uncertainty in tomorrow, obviously, increases. At the same time, there are doubts about the correctness of Bankova's decisions and a request for political projects that can satisfy the voter's need in a stable world. There are many voters ready to support the critics of power under certain conditions.

And since society is injured in war, this topic will be key to all political forces. According to political expert Alexander Kochetkov, the key messages in this direction will be: restoration of the country in the post -war period, in particular, the economic revival of Donbass. And also the topic of language. According to Posternak, this speculative factor will allow the opposition to distance themselves from the current authorities.

The main condition that will affect the political sympathies of society is the result of war. The range of electoral expectations is wide: from the complete collapse of the Russian Federation to the possible freezing of war and the inability of Ukraine to recruit temporarily occupied territories of Donbass and Crimea.

If the external enemy is not rightly punished in the eyes of society, and most of the territories remain in the occupation, there will be an acute desire to replace the absence of victory over the external enemy, the victory over the inner. There are many applicants for this role, experts believe. Ukrainians were disappointed in old politicians, and most voters are unlikely to look at those who are associated with the period before February 24, 2022. Therefore, competition is high.

And in the struggle for a voter, one of the ways of pressure on the critics of the authorities can become a label of "Kremlin agents", experts say. "I think, in the words [Secretary of NSDC Alexei] Danilov can see a hint of [Alexei] Arestovich, who in September took a course for criticism an electorate that really has nothing to do with Russia. A project is not powerful and ready to use fatigue from war and to devour electoral capital in criticism of power will definitely appear.

Therefore, it is extremely important to accuse in advance of the "pro -Russian" He criticizes the President and his environment, "the Poster thinks. At the same time, Arestovich, who has cooperated with the bank for a long time, according to the expert, may be a "manual opposition". OP understands that competitors will play a voter from war, so they need a communicator capable of attracting this electorate, while keeping the interests of the current authorities.

"I am not inclined to believe that Arestovich's behavior is unmanaged by Bankova. He worked with power for a long time, did not criticize [President Vladimir] Zelensky in the summer, and was clearly preparing for the autumn political season. an electorate, which is called "pro -Russian", although these are the voters who voted for the "servant of the people" and "POZH", but were disappointed because of fatigue, "Posterak adds. As a result of the war, the voter himself changed.

According to the expert, the opposition of civilians and military appeared. Those who try to passively treat what is happening and active volunteers. And also the confrontation of refugees abroad and those who remained in Ukraine. All these policies will be actively used during the election campaign, which, according to experts, can start already in the spring and summer of next year.

Moreover, the Western partners of Ukraine, after the end of the war, can set on the maximum democratization of internal processes and political polarization of the country, experts say. This can be a prerequisite for Ukraine to restore the country. And to complicate the attempts of the current authorities to "retain" the opposition. Focus wrote earlier that Ukraine was mentioned in Ukraine, despite the ongoing war. Demographers and cybersecurity experts are skeptical of the idea.