Putin is aiming to seize four regions of Ukraine: what Moscow is lying to Trump about, ISW

Thus, Gerasimov told the head of the Kremlin about the "successes" of the occupying army in a number of directions and about the "encirclement" of dozens of Ukrainian battalions. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed the conversation between Vladimir Putin and Gerasimov and emphasizes that the Kremlin has not given up its intention to completely seize Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions - despite what Putin told Trump about his readiness to make concessions in Ukraine.

It is worth noting that Putin listened to Gerasimov's speech in military uniform. It is noteworthy that it became more frequent with the change of image. This is the third time the Russian president has appeared in public in uniform since early 2022. He wore it for the last time on September 16. ISW analysts note that the head of the Russian General Staff continues to exaggerate the successes of the Russian army on the battlefield.

Gerasimov began his report to Putin by stating that Russian troops continue to carry out the task of seizing the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. Gerasimov's statement reiterates Putin's long-standing demand that Ukraine hand over all four illegally annexed regions to Russia, while undermining recent Russian offers to exchange territory in southern Ukraine for full control of the Donetsk region.

"Gerasimov stated — most likely falsely — that Russian troops surrounded up to 5,500 Ukrainian troops in the Pokrovsk direction and blocked a group of 31 Ukrainian battalions in the Pokrovsk and Mirnograd area (east of Pokrovsk)," ISW notes.

The head of the Russian General Staff also claimed that units of the Russian 2nd and 51st combined armies of the Russian Armed Forces are advancing in the east and have allegedly already completed the encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the mentioned area. According to Gerasimov, Russia's efforts to isolate the war zone in order to cut off supplies to Ukraine allegedly contributed to the encirclement.

He added that the adaptation of the tactics and technologies of drones for strikes on Ukrainian land lines of communication played a significant role in this. Gerasimov also stated that the Central Group of Forces was ordered to destroy the allegedly surrounded Ukrainian troops near Pokrovsk and Myrnograd. According to the chief of the Russian General Staff, the occupiers have also had equally impressive "successes" in the Kupyan direction.

There, Gerasimov said, the Zapad group of troops allegedly surrounded Kupyansk. The encirclement, he says, was preceded by a flanking maneuver by assault units of the 68th Motorized Rifle Division from the 6th Combined Arms Army, during which they captured crossings across the Oskil River south of Kupyansk. Gerasimov also claims that Russian troops blocked Ukrainian forces on the left bank of the Oskol to the east of Kupyansk.

In general, according to Gerasimov's version, the occupiers allegedly surrounded 18 Ukrainian battalions in Kupiansk. "Putin similarly falsely claimed in October 2024 that Russian forces surrounded 2,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast, and later in March 2025 claimed that Russian forces had "isolated" Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast and that it was "impossible" for small groups of Ukrainian troops to withdraw from their positions.

Russian forces did not surround significant numbers of Ukrainian troops under time of Russian operations with the return of the Kursk region at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, despite Putin's statements," parallels were drawn in ISW.

In addition, Gerasimov also stated that Russian forces have allegedly advanced south of Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv) and captured more than 70 percent of the city, and that they are completing the capture of Yampol (southeast of Liman) and have already occupied Dronivka (northwest of Siversk) and Pleshchiivka (southeast of Kostyantynivka). At the same time, Russian military bloggers denied Gerasimov's statements.

They directly stated that the head of the Russian General Staff is lying and that the Russian Armed Forces did not surround Ukrainian forces in Kupiansk and Pokrovsk. There is a multi-kilometer corridor between the Russian groups operating near Pokrovsk, and if someone infiltrates into the populated areas controlled by the Armed Forces, then it cannot be called encirclement.

Another Russian military blogger even declared that Pokrovsk and Kupyansk are in "one hundred percent chaos," and another noted that Gerasimov is "again ahead of events" and expects that the reality on the ground "will soon catch up with his message.

" He also suggested that the report of the chief of the Russian General Staff to Putin is actually intended for US President Donald Trump, who, having heard about Russian "successes", will rush to "beg for mercy" for the "surrounded" Ukrainian military. In addition, such an interpretation of the situation at the front, he believes, should give Trump the impression that the Ukrainians have serious problems at the front.

In his opinion, Putin was trying to achieve the same thing when he talked about the "surrounding" of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region in March. ISW found no evidence to support Gerasimov's claims. ISW found only evidence to estimate that Russian forces captured approximately 23% of Vovchansk.

ISW analysts only saw footage from October 24 showing a limited number of Russian forces operating in the eastern part of Kostyantynivka after a suspected infiltration operation, and found no evidence of Russian forces in Siversk. The Kremlin also presents the capture of small settlements of no operational importance as major successes in informational influence.

It will be recalled that the Armed Forces liberated the settlement of Sukhetske in the Pokrovsky district of the Donetsk region and took prisoners. Focus also wrote about the liberation of the village of Torskyi in the Donetsk region.