"Decisive battle" for Donbas: Why Russia made the most regrouping of troops

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out the most regrouping since the battles near Kiev in 2022, focusing significant forces for the decisive battle for the Donetsk region. OSINT analytics predict the return to the use of armored vehicles, including tanks and BMPs, which indicates preparation for a large-scale offensive. According to the Institute of War Study (ISW) on September 4, the situation on the front remains tense.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have struck Russian radar systems in the Rostov region and successfully counterattacked on several fronts, while Russia increases forces in the Zaporozhye direction. Ukrainian troops probably attacked two radar systems in the Rostov region on the night of September 4.

NASA FIRMS data recorded thermal signatures on the Russian system of Southern Navigation RLS-1 in Rostov-on-Don and in the territory of the former 1244 anti-aircraft missile regiment near Nazarov, where the C-300PS complexes previously operated. In the Sumy direction, Russian troops advanced south of Yablunovka and 0. 5 km from Varachin to the Varachin -Oleksiyivka highway. However, the Armed Forces were counterattacked near Kindrativka, Oleksiyivka and Sadkiv.

The Russian blogger associated with the northern group has recognized that Ukrainian drones complicate the advance of the enemy, and the tactics of small groups are ineffective due to the inability to bypass Ukrainian positions unnoticed. In the Kharkiv region of the Armed Forces, they advanced to Kupyansk, returning positions near the gas station in the northern outskirts of the city.

Russians use "invisible" cloaks for night traveling in small groups, but the Armed Forces are effectively opposed. In the Donetsk region, the Ukrainian forces advanced in the Serebryanka and Katerynivka area, and also released good luck, installing a Ukrainian flag there. Near the Tolstoy enemy was rejected and Russian positions were destroyed. The Russians unsuccessfully attacked near Dobropillya, but occupied Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk.

In the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya directions of promotion, the enemy is activated in the Zaporozhye region using FPV-aroma, reconnaissance UAVs and armored vehicles after the "gray zone" was mine. Russia throws elite units from Sumy and Kherson regions to Donetsk for autumn offensive, seeking to seize the rest of the region. According to military expert Roman Svitan, these newcomers consist of hundreds of thousands of soldiers, which along the entire front line.

They overturned some of the troops from Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson directions, mainly from Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk fronts. The main purpose of this maneuver is to expand the captured corridor, especially after problems with water supply in the Donbass. Svitan claims that the use of forces will be almost all over the front line - from Vasilyevka to Kupyansk. This includes the deployment of the second wave of reserves that are now activated.

All this is aimed at a common purpose: the displacement of Ukrainian troops from the Zaporozhye part and part of Donetsk region. The expert emphasizes that another task has emerged - about Pokrovsk, so there is also an increase in pressure. In particular, the Russian command probably counts on a numerical advantage, but ignores logistics problems such as lack of water in the Donbass.

This is not a new problem: historically water supply in the region depended on the channels of Siverskyi Donets - Donbas, which were damaged during the fighting. Recovering control over them could facilitate the supply for the occupied territories, but requires considerable effort. "One of the key tasks for the Russians is to go to Slavyansk, in particular to the water intake on the Seversky Donetsk to restore the water supply in the region.

They also try to expand the controlled corridor on the Zaporizhzhya front, mainly in the area from Vasilyevka to the Norther Pokrovsk, in order to come to Slavyansk from the west, not only from the south through the estuary, from the east through Serebryanka and Siversk, or from the north by the time Yar and Konstantinovka.

So, according to Svitan, it is not about the specific direction of the offensive-the Russians plan to move everywhere in the Zaporozhye-Donetsk direction, that is, on the Southeast Front. "They will stop where the forces are exhausted, or where the Ukrainian forces will stop them. There is some positive dynamics for the enemy thanks to fresh reserves, so they will try to displace the Ukrainian positions step by step.

This will determine their achievements in the summer military campaign in 2025 - after the reserves. According to the expert, for the Defense Forces of Ukraine the key task is to counteract this, first and foremost to destroy this second wave. Svitan believes that it is possible to grind these forces, as it was done with previous waves. The main thing is to minimize the loss of their own personnel and territory.

The Russians have already lost thousands of vehicles and personnel, but continue to accumulate forces. The Ukrainian strategy should focus on asymmetrical actions: strokes on logistics, use of FPV and international assistance in service. The main thing is to keep the initiative, minimizing losses. Recall that Boris Johnson believes that the war in Ukraine can end by the end of 2025, if the event, including the United States by Trump, will increase the pressure on the Kremlin.