The new offensive of Russia will definitely be. Already clearly clear time

"In the last few days, we hear that Russia is preparing an attack by the numerical potential of troops about 200,000. This figure sounds from a number of Western officials as well as analytical agencies. But there are very important nuances in these statements. " Opinion.

The fact is that they are all superficial, even those that are analytical in nature, and do not have a minimum depth of consideration of this issue and generally the problem of concentration of such a group and its provision in Russia, even through compulsory general mobilization. First, I want to congratulate the Russian occupation troops on the next record of their servicemen destroyed. Thus, in January 2023, the number of destroyed occupiers exceeded 21 thousand.

That is, even at the most modest assumptions, the total losses with wounded and captives in the years amounted to 50-60 thousand. As you know, these losses were compensated by the Russian command for January to maintain the intensity of hostilities and Stability of defense of the occupied territories. That is, the inflow to the units of the ROV in January was the same 50-60 thousand. But we are not distracted and pay attention to the figure of 200 thousand.

In fact, it is 2 months of repressive mobilization processes in Russia. On the other hand, did we see the same in the fall of 2022? The call of 300 thousand for 3 months and… and, in fact, what? Some serious breakthrough? Over the last 4 months, the Russian command has been occupied by the feverishly compensated for the loss of personnel in the war zone with a mobilized resource. And the more in the database zone they became, the higher the losses were.

And the average loss of 200/300/400 is now stable 50 thousand, that is, calling 100 thousand a month, you have to understand that the same month you have to compensate for the losses of 50 thousand. And next month too. And if you come from such losses of personnel of the Russian troops, in February the resource of September mobilized will end and in March a new party is needed.

With such losses, you will never be able to organize a mobilization for 200 thousand, collect a shock group for the offensive. Because such mobilization is sufficient to compensate for losses for the next 2-3 months, not for an offensive surgery. That is, there will be no offensive? No. Will. This is their manic-fanatic goal. But they need a larger mobilization resource-150-200 thousand a month. It is unlikely that 200 thousand/month in Russia can be achievable, but 150 thousand/month.

They are crackled, but will be able to provide. Yes, the Russian command will be able to compensate for the losses in the database and in parallel to form a shock group. But he will need from 2 to 4 months. That is, by May, the switch will really be able to form a shock group for the offensive. But there is a nuance. It is unlikely that the command of the jar will wait so long. This means that the offensive can be unfolded by defective units without a potential loss of losses.

In other words, if the offensive fails, they will not have forces and means. There is another very important point - the lack of opportunities in Russia to provide new units with staff equipment. After 200 thousand, it is, for a minute, about 250 BTGR, or 2750 tanks, 8250 BBM and so on. That is, even it is clear to them that these are all unreal figures. But we do not forget that the current potential of the jar in Ukraine is units 8, 49, 58 OV, 22 AK, 35, 36 OV invoice, 3 AK and others.

Their total number of active combat part is from 100 to 120 BTGR, depending on the degree of combat capability and presence on the battle line and the database zone as a whole. Therefore, the offensive that thinks the mole in the near future will be the potential of those 100-120 BTGR, which are now located in Ukraine and which will receive constant compensation for the losses of units in the process of offensive, since Russia is no longer capable. But it will not be easy.