Capitulation is canceled: why Trump and Putin will not be able to do without Ukraine and Europe

In this regard, some are currently worried that the Trump version of the truce in fact will be the surrender of Ukraine and, as a consequence, the victory of the Russian Federation and the death of the present world order. Of course, nothing can be excluded, but I still do not think what it can happen. Trump's arrangement with Putin cannot be unacceptable for Ukraine.

That is, it should not provide: if at least one of these points remains in the final agreement, Ukraine will simply not sign it, as it will mean signature under the sentence of its country. Americans are likely to threaten military and financial assistance. But this threat will not work, because the occupation and death of the state is more terrible.

In addition, in fact, the President of the United States, for all his loud statements and threats, in reality does not have powerful pressure levers on Kiev. (Paradoxically, when Biden was president, Trump had more opportunities to be exposed to Ukraine than it is now. Then he easily and easily mixed the political opponent's policy. But that's not all. Trump and Putin will not be able to negotiate a long -term settlement without Europe's participation and consent.

The explanation is simple: a key element of any agreement-ensuring and maintaining security guarantees-at the insistence of the Americans themselves involves serious European participation, until the departure of troops.

Thus it turns out that at least as Trump and Putin wanted to show themselves cool guys who can make all the problems themselves and to agree on everything, in reality without the consent and participation of Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the EU, they can (and will not be able) to do anything . Through all of the above, those who promise to negotiate and arrange everything (and now it is the US and the Russian Federation), find themselves in a very vulnerable pressure from the outside.

Not only can Europe and Ukraine, but also have to disrupt their arrangements - to confuse their arrogance, humiliate and force their (European and Ukrainian) requirements. It is quite realistic to turn such a fence now. The illustration of this thesis is the story of Zelensky's refusal to sign an agreement on the transfer of half of the minerals to the Americans. The Trumpists were convinced that Ukraine would have to go anywhere - it would be signed like a cute.

Because of this, the refusal was a real shock for them: "In the sense-no? exceptionally a cowardly cattle, who passed the ally of Putin's dictator. In general, the United States swallowed this refusal. I am sure that others will swallow. Trump himself drove himself into the trap with unrealistic promises of the rapid achievement of peace. And if he wants to fulfill them (and he wants), then in Saudi Arabia he will still have to press on Putin, not on Zelensky.