Trump wants to get triple benefit: what is the essence of his conversation with Putin

Peace and trade? No. It is important for Putin to confirm Russia's ambitions to the status of a global superpower. But there is one problem - without a clear "Victory picture" it is impossible. Since both China and the United States are the situation of weakening Russian influence in the world. But it does not suit the variant of the defeat of any of the parties in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Putin is aware of the risks of increased dependence on China and trying to bargain with the US (and in the future with the EU) to find a new balance. The process is disturbed by the war. But leaving the world without "Victory Picture" is not an option for Russia. Therefore, the Kremlin is set up for a long time. At least to hold a summer campaign (ie, the offensive from June to, about the beginning of November) to try to achieve a favorable position on the front.

You do not want to put a track of Trump Putin through these plans. Therefore, the idea with "direct negotiations in Turkey" was used. Briefly the idea that is still in Putin: by starting "direct negotiations" to try to divide the negotiation tracks of the Russian Federation - Ukraine, the Russian Federation - the USA and possibly the Russian Federation - the EU.

That is, to distinguish the "Ukrainian problem" so that it, instead of the decisive factor in relations with the countries of Western civilization, has become just a background. This has already been rotated in 2022 during the conclusion of the Grain Agreement. There were documents on the regime of shipping. And in parallel (formally not related to them) General License No. 6 (now the General License 6D), which released all (!) Russian fertilizers from sanctions.

In 2025, the idea is the same-to delay Ukraine in endless conversations and disputes-to some analogue of the Tripartite Contact Group "within the framework of" Minsk-2 "and, at the same time, to conduct a separate dialogue with Washington and European capitals. Where every "concession" is in the Ukrainian direction to sell as a basis for concessions from the US and the EU. However, do not resolve the issue on the merits.

A number of European leaders are well aware of this logic and therefore stand for the "truce, then negotiations". They are joined by Turkey, for which Russia's exit from war with strong positions is a threat to the policy of spreading its influence in the Middle East, in Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Black Sea region (and even in Africa, by the way). But a weak place in this formula is the United States. We look at the beginning of the text at the Trump's interest triad.

He has already received bonuses in the Ukrainian direction. The other two issues were suspended because negotiations on the end of the war and negotiations on cooperation with the Russian Federation were connected in one package. Putin gave a hint - tracks can be divided. After all, "negotiations" in Istanbul passed. Trump has accepted the idea and now proposes to fix the situation.

Where there are Russian-Ukrainian negotiations (to which there is interest in the White House, but it is not decisive). And there is a conversation about the common business of Moscow and Washington. Here interest is enormous. Moreover, the Russian Federation offers minerals, energy, logistics and joint trading of hydrocarbons in Europe. Therefore, we will be forced to continue "direct negotiations". There will be little benefit. The likelihood of peace in the next 3-4 months is extremely small.

After all, Putin needs a "Picture of Victory". That is, successes on the front + concessions from the US, EU and NATO. By the way, the first Trump gave "advance" stating that Ukraine is unlikely to become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance. Therefore, there will be regular meetings for fairly intense fighting. In parallel, Trump will try to negotiate with Putin. Not only on strategic issues (resources, Arctic), but also on "fast benefits".

And this is Russia's return to the European oil and gas market. But already through the gasket-some Russian-American company. But can it be a driver for peace? Even if the rough arrangements are, the US can wait until the fall - a period of sharp increase in gas demand in Europe. Which coincides with the timing of the clarity in the success or failure of the Russian summer military campaign.

Therefore, the Ukrainian delegation will have to go regularly with Russian emissaries without serious prospects of achieving an acceptable result. The situation is difficult, but not hopeless. We remember that the idea of ​​"dividing the negotiation tracks" and Trump's ideas about business with Putin do not delight a number of states. This means that Ukrainian delegations will be extremely important to consult and develop a system of interaction with European partners and Turkey.

And also (which would not like Trump, but would have the effect), try to create your own track consultation with the PRC, Brazil and India - the Brix nucleus. The task is to have the fall, preferably a formal (ie, a system of contracts) a mechanism of cooperation with at least with the countries of Old Europe + Britain + Turkey. And negotiating track with Brix core.