Pause in front of the storm: Why did the Shahaneda attacks decrease in Ukraine

On Saturday night to Sunday, August 10, 2025, Russian troops made a massive attack on Ukrainian cities, applying 100 shock unmanned aerial vehicles like Shahd, as well as drone-simulators of various modifications. For the last 10 days in Ukraine there has been a decrease in the intensity of attacks of Russian drones. The last massive combined attack took place on the night of July 31. Then more than 300 drones and 8 rockets were launched.

Currently, on average, Russians are launching 80-100 "Shahanedov" and drowsers-imitators in Ukraine per day. According to the military expert Oleg Zhdanov, a recent reduction in the intensity of the use of Shahaneda is not directly related to the blows on production facilities, but rather the result of conscious accumulation of stocks in warehouses.

He emphasizes that even if the attacks on the city of Elabuga, where one of the key enterprises for the production of these drones is located, and will affect the total amount of issue, this effect will not be manifested immediately. Today's amount of Shahd remains stable because Russia continues to use existing reserves without feeling short -term deficiency. Zhdanov explains that the Russian Armed Forces have a significant warehouse resource of these drones.

"Until this stock is exhausted, Ukraine will not notice the real reduction of attacks, regardless of whether it is a violation of production chains through bombardment, whether the direct destruction of a certain amount of finished products at factories. The plant in Elabuz has already lost the status of a single or most important production center. Moscow diversify production and compensate for possible losses from blows, "the expert said.

In particular, Zhdanov recalls the factories in Tula, where Shahd is already established, as well as in Izhevsk, where they produce a similar technique or its components. In addition, new capacity was recently launched in Dubna, in the Moscow region, which further increases the production potential of the Russians. Thus, damage to one plant does not critically affect the total volume of supply.

The expert believes that the current pause in the massive use of drones is not a sign of weakness, but a strategic decision. The Russian Federation probably accumulates resources to prepare for new waves of massive blows in the Ukrainian territory to cause maximum damage at the right time. This opinion is supported by Vladimir Putin's recent statement, which Zhdanov gives an example.

"The Russian leader stated that in case of consent to the so-called" air truce "-that is, the termination of air attacks-any violation from Ukraine will lead to an immediate response. In the case of escalation. The senior analyst of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation Anton Zemlyany also agrees that the army of the Russian Federation is engaged in the accumulation of drones.

However, the main reason for the reduction of the intensity of strokes is the attacks of the Defense Forces of Ukraine on the objects of the Russian OPC, which are involved in the chain of drones production. "In particular, the SBU recently struck the logistics point near Alabuga, where drones and their components were stored. Before that, there were attacks on Primorsk-Akhtarsk and Millervo, where the Russians launch drones," the senior analyst added.

Also, according to the earth, it should be noted that on the background of possible fall or delays of production, the Russians carry out the accumulation of drones, which they used for attacks in July. There are suspicions that Russians used their reserves for mass shelling in July, as last month the Russians attracted more drones every day than Russian factories produced.

"For example, in the first 5 months of 2025, the Russians used drones in an attack more than 10 times than they produce a day, while in fact, since June, there were already about 25. So it takes time to restore reserves to the Russians," the expert emphasized. Anton Earth doubts that the reduction of the use of drones by the Kremlin is associated with diplomatic processes.

"The Russians never interfered with the terror of the Ukrainian population, even when the world leaders arrived in Ukraine or when the Kremlin was negotiating with Washington. On the contrary, shelling of civilians for Moscow is an attempt to show power and determination to act. enemy, " - summed up the expert of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation.