What play Putin will lead further: As the aggressor will try to finish the war by deceiving the whole world

Of course, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin will try to use it. He will actively sell the idea of ​​the end of the war at once to several audiences - Russian, Western and Ukrainian. "Do you want to finish the war? That's what you need to do" - and then Putin will give a list of requirements, ultimatums and/or conditions for Russia to start considering the idea of ​​de -escalation.

This approach can easily become a real Trojan horse when, through conversations about peace, Putin will try to achieve everything that he could not achieve with the help of weapons - control over Ukrainian territories, preserving influence in Eastern Europe, restoration of opportunities for Russian exports.

Actually, it is an ancient Soviet method - in the midst of the war in Afghanistan, Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev Ukri actively spoke about peace in the whole world and about the dedication of the USSR to the ideas of peaceful coexistence of peoples. Putin prefers to show the whole world that the end of the war depends on him, and will try to use it. Thus, he - in his strange dictatorial logic - wants to go into the category of peacekeepers from the category of war criminals.

If the turn on this line begins to produce positive results for Russia, Putin with both feet will be on the path of such rhetoric, saying that no one wants peace the way Russia wants.

What can Russians offer in exchange for de -escalation and peace? For example, the introduction of a special political regime in the occupied territories in order to emphasize their "special subjectivity", to give them special status within the framework of international precedent law in his Russian sense - as there is a so -called "Republic of Serbian" in Bosnia, as exists in the territory Moldova is the so -called "Transnistrian Republic".

And in this case, these territories will have the right to organize a referendum (under Russian control, of course), in order to further decide on their future - a trigger for such actions can be Ukraine's accession to NATO. At the same time, Ukraine, of course, will consider these territories its territories, but Russia - too. Simply put, the Putin idea comes down to the thesis: "Let's freeze all this thing in the spirit of Minsk agreements - and there we will see.

" The well -known argument that the freezing of the war will give the Russian army an opportunity to accumulate forces, Putin will say: "Please send observers from the OSCE to our border, to our defense enterprises, military bases - and watch. " 2024 is the year of the huge number of election campaigns around the world, when all types of political alternatives will declare themselves in full voice. 76 countries will hold elections of different levels.

There will also be a variety of alternatives how the Ukrainian-Russian war can be completed. Putin realizes that many politicians will want to go down in history as peacekeepers, and they will voice their proposals. It is worth appearing to a new president in the US - Putin will immediately offer him or her: "Do you want the role of a peacemaker? I can sell it.

" Until we saw a significant number of pacifist speeches about the cessation of hostilities - neither in Ukraine nor in Russia - but it should be prepared that at some stage of our protracted war there will be a factor such as pacifism. Russian propaganda can easily blow similar moods in different countries and regions, and Russian intelligence services will try to take pacifist movements under control.

Pacifists do not even need to invent new slogans, long known: "While politicians earn dividends in the war, ordinary people suffer. " This method was actively used by Yuri Andropov, the head of the KGB of the USSR. When he realized that he could not stop anti -Soviet social movements and prison terms, andropov began to control certain participants in dissident groups.

Putin can be solved quite similarly - instead of watching the public speeches of the Russians dissatisfied with the war, he will try to make the Kremlin conductor of these sentiment, and, as the leader of the country, at some point will say that he is ready to hear the voice of the people and fulfill a public request for peace - offering it in a favorable version.

At the same time, it will add freshness to the next Putin presidential term - something like "I will hear everyone" in the style of Viktor Yanukovych, who actively used the services of Russian political technologists. It is likely that Russia wants to get rid of the status of a country that millions of people have now hated - primarily because of the war crimes of the Russian army.

Russian propaganda will try to help the West "forget" about these crimes, forget about Bucha and Irpin and other places of genocide against Ukrainians and Ukrainian women. To do this, Russia will be more willing to exchange prisoners of war, local scenarios of temporary ceasefire, on certain humanitarian initiatives, so that these topics are dominated by international discussions.

The Kremlin understands that Ukraine easily wins most international discussions because of the ways that the Russian army fights - and wants to take this argument in Ukraine. Moreover, Putin wants to make Russia's exit from the hot war - with his victory. First, he wants to regain his former international status. Secondly, he wants to rehabilitate Russia in terms of law, morality and reputation.

Third, he wants to show that Russia's political and economic isolation is not a long time and is easy to overcome, it is only worth wanting. In 2024, the contract between Naftogaz and Gazprom ends on the transportation of Russian gas to the European Union - and it will be a reason to offer Putin: "Talk?" And he will start his proposals from economic requirements. This can be an attempt to preserve the role of gas and oil supplier for Europe.

It can be a requirement to return Michael Friedman his nationalized banking business in Ukraine, and not to nationalize the Kyivstar telecom operator. This can be a request to withdraw at least personal sanctions from Russian oligarchs and their assets. As always, the idea of ​​protecting the Russian language in Ukraine and the parishes and dioceses of the Moscow Patriarchate will be over.

If the war continues until 2025, then we can face the situation when the idea spreads: "If the war lasts for so long - then both sides are guilty of this, because they are interested in fighting further. " Unfortunately, Ukraine can also accuse that the war is too long. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy understands this, and therefore will expect from the Ukrainian generals to do everything that the Ukrainian army is capable of, during 2024 and no later than.

America has long believed that diplomacy should be given to resolving a military conflict between Ukraine and Russia, not relying only on combat methods. Publicly, American leaders will say and say that it is only a matter of Ukraine, but it is just a public position that also has an underwater part. The idea of ​​victory over Russia will remain popular in Europe - thanks to the diplomatic efforts of countries such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Moldova.

Accordingly, President Zelensky will have to make decisions within the perimeter of concepts: the victory of Ukraine - peace - the defeat of Russia. That is, it can offer Ukrainian society victory as such (or further struggle for it), can offer a certain variant of peace in the interests of Ukraine, can propose to perceive the defeat of Russia (its loss, its isolation, the seizure of its assets) as a victory.

But unlike Russia, Ukraine is democracy, so Zelensky will deal with the public sentiment with which he will try to play resonance. If Putin is important to maintain a significant part of the political initiative to solve the war in his own interests, Ukraine is important. And this is the key difference between the positions of the two countries.

Putin expects that for his propaganda system to create a video or a documentary for one and a half hours to convince the Russian audience that the goals of the so -called reached were not a problem. But Ukraine lives according to honest rules, where the report to society should look clearly different. What could be advised by the President of Zelensky and the Ukrainian Government? And you could advise the maximum goals in the Ukrainian interests, but you will not go anywhere from diplomacy.

It is necessary to have a response to the thesis that peace saves life. It is necessary to predict a dilemma in advance, where Putin will offer the seductive conditions of ceasefire for the opportunity to leave the war with minimal reputational and financial losses. One thing is good: it depends on Ukraine that the world will consider victory and that the world will consider defeat in this war. This is what our diplomacy should start.