Exchange of political prisoners: can the White House and the Kremlin agree on peace behind Ukraine's back

Russian participants of large-scale exchange of prisoners between the countries of the West and the Russian Federation Ilya Yashin, Vladimir Kara-Murza and Andriy Pivovarov held a press conference in German Bonn. The focus was angered by the focus in the world. The released Russian opposition Trinity, in the person of Yashin, Kara-Murza and Pivovarov, confirmed that he would continue to engage in politics, focusing on international affairs.

In this context, reflecting on the sanction policy of the West, Kara-Murza emphasized that now the sanctions of Western countries are directed "not against Putin's regime, but against all Russian citizens. " "And this, in my opinion, is extremely unfair and counterproductive. There are no tens of millions of people who oppose the war? So I see the main focus of my activity in reminding people in the free world that Russia and Putin are not one And the same.

In his turn, Andrey Pivovarov noted that even while in prison, he tried to "closely monitor the socio-political discussion. " He stressed that he sees his task to take steps that will allow people who oppose the Putin regime to express their position with minimal risks. Pivovarov did not give details of this plan, but several times in a row stressed the need to weaken those sanctions on Russia that harm "ordinary people".

He urged the world community not to close from Russia and give the Russians the opportunity "to see that enemies do not live here. " Meanwhile, Ilya Yashin told how he sees the end of the war. In particular, when answering this question, he excluded the possibility of returning to the control of Ukraine the occupied territories. With this statement, the Russian oppositionist caused a wave of indignation in the Ukrainian segment of social networks.

"To distinguish" good "Russians from" bad "is becoming more difficult. They are almost equally equally in prison and at large," political scientist Viktor Nevzhenko wrote on Facebook. Meanwhile, during a stream on his YouTube channel on Sunday, August 4, Yashin dramatically adjusts his position and emphasized: "A key task for all people who want to live in a free world is the salvation of Ukraine.

Salvation of Ukraine from Putin is the right thing The choice of both pragmatic and moral point of view. "Not in the Ukrainian Mainstroy, but . . . Sincere I am glad that Russian political prisoners were pulled out of prisons and did not allow them to deal with them in Russia until deprivation. I am sure that such people can speak and persuade them. There are no" good or bad "Russian. There are criminals, there are a humble majority and are still those who are not fully deceived by Russian propaganda.

Roads, "-notes ex-analyst of Ukraine in the United States Valery Chaly. At the same time, the experts with whom the focus communicated is not so clear in their estimates. In particular, political scientist Igor Reityrovich states in a conversation with focus: "Ukraine should not take any initiative to communicate with Russian opposition, who have been released as a result of the exchange of event in the Russian Federation. Why, because, for all respect for these people, they are no one.

They are not representatives of any political forces. According to the expert, the voice of Yashin, Kara-Murza, Pivovarov and others will have a zero impact on the Russian audience, since they were marginalized under the full program and they do not pose any danger at all for Putin's regime and Putin himself. "Moreover, they cannot be considered in the context of the alternative of power, since the deep Russian people do not like when someone, being abroad, tells them how to live.

Meanwh thoughts in the West. With regard to the anti -sanction calls of released depositors, there is no need to expect any changes here, says the political scientist. "There is a consensus in the event for sanctions against Russia and this consensus is that those sanctions that are to date should be kept at least until the end of the war. I do not think that the same Germany, where Kara-Murza and other figures are, suddenly It will change its policy so that the ordinary Russians are "good".

In turn, political scientist Alexei Yakubin, in conversation with focus, notes: despite the fact that even before prison, the activities of the same Yashin or Kara-Murza was sufficiently limited, a certain audience in Russia had. And this audience, without being public, somewhere There is also difficult to say in the Russian Federation.

At the same time, the political scientist believes that their statements, in particular those concerning the weakening of sanctions against Russia, partially resonate with the idea of ​​the Western audience. "It is important to understand that since the Cold War, the United States and the West as a whole have divided power and society in the USSR, and now in the Russian Federation.

And it seems to me that in terms of this approach" anti-sanctal "calls of the same kara-Murza may have resonance In the West, they reflect the position of individual Western politicians who speak of the need for a targeted sanction approach to the Russian power, not relative to the average Russians, " - emphasizes Alexei Yakubin.

Separately, the expert draws attention to the change in the rhetoric of the Kremlin's recent political prisoners: "If earlier they stated that Putin's regime can only be changed in the military means, now we do not hear such signals. It may be due to the fact that Part of the newly released oppositionists sees their political prospects directly in Russia, subject to some relative liberalization.

Washington Post reports that after the exchange of prisoners between the United States and the Russian Federation, in Kiev, they were concerned about the fact that both countries could also secretly agree on peace in Ukraine. WP states that Ukrainian officials will insist that Joe Biden will keep his promise: "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.

" Recalling that 10 years ago, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, France's leaders and Germany François Hollande and Angela Merkel pushed the then President Poroshenko to sign the Minsk agreements on extreme about the fact that it can be forced to go to "unacceptable compromises".

Meanwhile, Washington and Moscow seemed to be able to avoid further escalation of the conflict due to the US intervention, which refused Kiev from conducting some secret operation, said the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Ryabkov. At the same time, the diplomat noted separately that Russia does not plan to make concessions to the United States and will negotiate "Bash on the Bash".

Meanwhile, political scientist Igor Reityrovich, commenting on these signals, said the following: "I do not think that the US and the Russian Federation can talk about some peace in Ukraine, because the same Sullivan publicly stated that the exchange channels of prisoners did not concern their own contact with Putin.

This is, secondly, the topic that the United States, along with the Russian Federation, was noticed by some operation of Ukraine, which made it impossible to spinning, the Russians have been spinning-they say, they almost forced Washington to click on Ukraine. The case is the attacks of Ukraine on the radar and some restraint forces.

At the same time, the recent exchange of prisoners withdrew a certain psychological barrier between Russia and the White House is convinced by political scientist Alexei Yakubin. "After a full -scale Russian invasion in 2022, even on extremely important projects, such as weapons of mass destruction, there was a" frost "between the US and the Kremlin. But this exchange showed that the parties can negotiate with each other," the expert said .