"Peace is still close, and Russia is in agony." What did she say about the end of the war with the Russian Federation

And it is the precision of the conditions for themselves that the efforts of all parties are directed. Including aggressor. The economy of which is like an ear on clay feet. But they continue to attack, prepare shock fists and disrupt negotiations. It's a game. When a large number of interests and interests, it is difficult to find a point of balance of such interests, and I resort to game theory. And to find the balance of Nash. What happened to me.

To begin with, I identified the basic interests of key stakeholders attracted: the second step I tried to find the balance of Nash - a point at which stakeholders close to their goals, taking into account the interests of the rest of the stakeholders (this) Without detail, if interesting, wrote) the Russian Federation Ukraine United States European Union UK Chinese People's Republic of Saudi Arabia Turkish Republic of missing a description of the vehicle for modeling.

What happened: modeling was made on the basis of dynamic non-cooperative game with 8 key players in 5 discrete periods (2025-2030). Methods of iterative exclusion of dominated strategies and Bayeysovsky renewal of players' ideas about each other's preferences were applied. Each player optimized a multicomponent useful function, including geopolitical, economic, security and internal political parameters with different weight ratios, depending on the player's priorities.

Modeling revealed three stable equilibriums, which differ in parameters of stability and long -term sales: Equilibrium A: "Continuation of the conflict of low intensity" Equilibrium B: "Compromise settlement with international guarantees" Equilibrium C: "Asymmetrical settlement under pressure. Terms 2027-2028 (!) Are specified. However, in the first model, I did not load data on the real social of the Russian economy.

As I wrote earlier, I evaluate their safety margin - by the end of 2025 (if there is no defrosting of assets and oil prices will remain low) but I raised them in the next stage of modeling: reduction of oil income: sanctions against the shadow fleet: the state of the BNB: Financial sustainability: military-industrial potential: socio-political stability: modeling taking into account new parameters revealed significant changes in the structure and likelihood of equilibrium states: modified equilibrium B: "Accelerated compromise settlement" equilibrium A: "continuation of the" Internal Intensity ".

Equilibrium) Specified time frames and triggers The most likely window to achieve compromise settlement has shifted to the end of 2025 - early 2026 thanks to the following key factors: line of demarcation and special status of territories: Crimea: Status of Ukraine: New Architecture of European Security: Positions: This is a small part of the analytics received. It does not claim the truth at the last resort, but indicates that peace is still close and Russia is in agony. Source.