A truce in Ukraine is a war in Europe. How much left before the Russian invasion of the EU

They argued their position with the rules of European legislation, the risk of creating a dangerous precedent for the competitiveness of the European financial market. Europeans, of course, are cool guys. They support Ukraine (here without irony!), But apparently they hope to live forever if they take care of the European financial market. Well, maybe not forever, but at least 3-5 years, which, according to experts, remain with a possible invasion of Russia into one of NATO countries.

In such forecasts, I recall Poland and the Baltic countries. I have bad news. The countdown will begin immediately after the start of a hypothetical truce in Ukraine. Great trouble for Europe can begin in a year. Suppose a truce in Ukraine has been announced and started, for example, from April 20. Suppose it will even continue. Not peace, but just a constant Cease Fire.

This means that the fighting ceases, Russia ceases to bear human and material loss, no longer consumes ammunition, rockets and drones. But at the same time, it does not "turn off" the military economy, but simply becomes a regime of accumulation. Next is a simple mathematics, which is based on open sources, which everyone can see. So, Russia produces from 1000-1500 tanks a year - according to the Minister of Defense of Germany Boris Pistorius. No one will smoke these tanks.

150–170 different missiles per month that will not be spent. 900 to 2000 long -range shock drones per month, which will not fly anywhere. And finally, Russia is gaining 30-40 thousand "contractors" for a month that no one will kill. Well, much more.

At the same time, we do not take into account the help from the DPRK, and no one cancels it! So, if the truce in Ukraine lasts at least a year, then at the beginning of May 2026 Russia will have: and it will be a year in a year, if the war in Ukraine is simply suspended. No European Army has such combat experience. No European Army will never treat people so ruthlessly. And no European country has a military economy currently.

And whether the collective "umbrella" NATO is a big question, especially given the new US policy. And May is a wonderful month to start great offensive actions. Already warm, but not very hot. In addition, it is a very symbolic month for Russians. Therefore, as soon as a truce will come in Ukraine - the clock will start clicking.

You, dear Europeans, do not need to think about competition in the financial market, but about martial law, preparation of reserves, deployment of bomb shelters, training of the population, zooming production of drones, construction of protective structures on the eastern borders, as well as transferring enterprises of the defense industry into mode of work 24/7. Poland and the Baltic countries already understand this. Northern Europe - too. France and Germany also began to reach.