Belarus is preparing for the war: why Lukashenko is waiting for NATO's "attack" in the Kobryn district and what will answer (map)

On Friday, April 26, young patients and children's hospital staff were evacuated on the outskirts of Kiev. Some were discharged and crying mothers, others were taken out, attaching to the apparatus of artificial lung ventilation. In this state children's clinic there are many departments, including resuscitation for newborns. The reason for these urgent measures was the statement of the head of the KGB of Belarus Ivan Tetel.

He suddenly stated that in Kiev in hospitals on Bogatyrskaya Street, 30 and 32 "terrorists" are hiding, so the "authorities" will act "according to the laws of wartime - decisively and without hesitation. " That is, it actually threatened to strike a medical facility in Ukraine. The fact that in the context of Russian armed aggression against Ukraine Belarus is actively involved in the support of the Russian Federation - not only threatening the attack, but also actually carrying it out.

For example, during a rocket attack on the night of April 27, aerobalist X47-M2 "daggers" flew from the territory of the Russian Federation over the territory of Belarus. And this is not the first time. Belarus not only allows to pass rockets through its airspace, but also launched them in the territory of Ukraine. It is at least seven hundred shelling in March 2022, when the Russian army waged fighting in the north of Ukraine.

Currently, the Russian Federation is still holding its anti -aircraft missile complexes, Isanders, aviation there. And all this can be applied again. Experts also pay attention to other statements of Belarusian politicians who have made during the recent All -Belarusian People's Assembly, a congress of the so -called new "body of democracy", which received broad powers after amendment to the Constitution of Belarus in 2022.

It was there that the Tetel performed, but Oleksandr Lukashenko spoke for the longest time. In particular, the so -called President of Belarus (and recall, the legitimacy of Lukashenko is not recognized by most countries of the West) that traditionally sees the danger from Ukraine - they say, on the border with Belarus Ukraine focused 120 thousand soldie Armed incidents "at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border" quite high ".

But at the same time he stated that "the attack" is prepared not only by Ukraine but also by NATO countries. The blow, according to him, is planned for the territory of Kobryn district. He, by the way, does not even borders the Alliance. "I do not know why they chose the Kobryn district, they speak a lot there. But he is not near the border. It is closer to the borders. No, Kobryn district.

To capture, to declare power, to contact NATO, to introduce troops," he said He, in mind, that NATO troops will follow the Belarusian opposition. It is from Lithuania - the Belarusian KGB already even prevented the blows of the drones on Minsk, planned by Vilnius. In Lithuania, these statements were called an information attack.

Experts remind that Alexander Lukashenko is not an independent figure, which is able to solve something despite the desire and instructions of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin. And to be surprised that he occurs from time to time with resonant statements, such as the fact that Lukashenko and Putin are co -resistance. "In fact, from the beginning of a full -scale invasion in 2022, Lukashenko has changed little.

Putin presses on him to start full fighting to expand the front line by 1200 km of the border. But Lukashenko understands that his army is on the background of Ukrainian, so He only tries to simulate violent activity and scatter loud phrases, "says Focus Military Expert Mikhail Zhirokhov. However, it is worth analyzing them.

So what is happening in Belarus now? Yes, there are no signs that Belarus can be used for re -attack on Ukraine from the north, or attacks on Lithuania, or Poland, that is, its direct participation in the Kremlin's war is not envisaged, but plans may change quickly.

For the second month in a row, Minsk has been checking the combat capability of the Armed Forces and conducting the army training, involving more than three thousand reservists - "military servicemen", as well as representatives of various troops. Wagnerivtsi are also involved in the training. Officially, this is happening in response to NATO Steadfast Defender 2024 with the participation of 13 Alliance Member States. Experts talk about them as the greatest military exercises since the Cold War.

In parallel, the deputies of Belarus adopted the bill "On suspension of the Treaty on Ordinary Armed Forces in Europe" (DZSE). It establishes limitation of the size of ordinary armed forces and determines the number of weapons, deployed forces in Europe. In May 2023, the Russian Federation came. On April 26, Belarus renovated the military doctrine, which provided for the departure of its military to the territory of the Union country, including the Russian Federation.

And all to support international peace and security. Does this mean that Belarus is militarized? It is unlikely to be a strong partner for the Russian Federation. It is one thing when the whole country actually works for Moscow. The Belarusian military-industrial complex is fully involved in the needs of the Russian army. Belarusian servicemen serve the Russian army, Russian servicemen are training at all Belarusian landfills, Russian equipment is serviced by Belarusian servicemen.

In addition, Belarusian oil refineries fill the lack of petroleum products that arose in Russia as a result of Ukrainian drones. Another thing is - to involve its army in hostilities. This is probably in certain areas of the front. And it will be kept as well as in 2022 - during the beginning of a full -scale invasion, residents of occupied areas of Chernihiv region showed that they saw among the occupiers of persons in Belarusian military uniform, and recognized them in specific speech.

But rather for Belarus the Russian Federation has now identified the role of a provocateur. For example, in Moscow they saw that Lukashenko is well resorted to the so -called migrant crises, no worse than the Russians themselves. Sometimes they are massive when migrants from Asia live near the open air border and storm the fences, at other times latent - the number of attempts to cross the border is steadily high.

Recall that in December 2023, Norway and Finland were already forced to close the transition on the border with Russia due to the mass stream of migrants by the Russian Federation, six months before the full -scale invasion of the migration crisis occurred at the border of Belarus with Poland and the Baltic countries. During 2023, approximately 26,000 attempts were recorded.

In both cases, NATO high -ranking officials said that the influx of migrants threatened to destabilize the political situation in the Alliance. Provocations of Belarus can also be arranged on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. Their goal is to delay the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the war zone to weaken them on other segments.

This is said such provocations, because in response, strategically important objects, in particular, have already mentioned oil refineries, as well as railroad, "were already mentioned by the Ukrainian army. " objects. In response, Belarus intensified the protection at the Mozir Oil Refinery, transferred, anti-aircraft missile complexes for protection. They were searched all over the country, not only removed from Minsk, "-adds Mikhail Zhirokhov.

Provocations, not only migrant, are possible on the border of Belarus with NATO, and in vain Lukashenko mentioned Lithuania. " A few years ago, it seems in 2017, the Russians. Strategic command and staff exercises, during which they worked out the option of invading the Baltic States, the capture of the Svalsky corridor. This plan is considered by the Russians in any case, but it is not known whether they will consider.

It depends on the political environment, "says Pavel Lakichuk, the head of the security programs of the Center of Globalism, Pavlo Lakichuk. In addition, the Russians are likely to work with the help of strengthening from Belarus - on Vilnius and Kaunas. "I know it for sure, the Belarusian generals with their colleagues from Moscow draw arrows on the maps towards Vilnius," he said The volume of 2022 is not even discussed.