Wagner attack on Poland and a coup in Niger. As Putin distracts the event from Ukraine

Against this background, the United States is very important that the appearance of Wagner in Poland is equal to the application of NATO 5 articles, but this does not mean that after the statement sharply decreases the backlash for the Russians. There are several reasons for: the Russians will provocations from a foreign country and proceed from the logic that there will be no serious military conflict.

There will be border provocations, raising rates and, as a cherry on a cake, mandatory threats to nuclear weapons. It is difficult to understand Lukashenko's logic, but she applies to two points: the second point is Laperal, but we all remember, as Gaddafi, after isolation, became the best friend of Europe, but, however, then it gradually finished.

So, as long as we look like we are at the initial point of this conflict and the most likely scenario: the next couple of months the conflict will increase. The likelihood of serious combat clashes is small, but the threat of playing nuclear muscles is a great threat. At the same time, we will have to keep quite large reserves in the north and northwest, because no one excludes the mirror repetition of "Shebekino".

As for Niger, this country gives almost a third of Uranus from all EU consumption (especially for France). The junta statement that they stop uranium exports to Europe and the preparation of a land operation France (there is a French military base in the country, by the way), it creates a rather difficult situation for the French.

For France, to be in the war in Niger, against the background of the fact that the neighboring small and Burkina Faso stated that the ground operation is considered as an invasion of their territory, it can mean involving in a serious conflict in most Africa. As for the Russians, they will only be able to fight there for the Wagner forces, which is a plus for us.

Putin's logic in such conflicts is very simple: he gives some military assistance and calls the leader to stay until the latter (logic has worked with Maduro and Assad). In the end, he now needs to win time and create a field for raising rates. Now much will depend on the French army and its willingness to resolve the conflict. Briefly summarizing we can state that in the grain agreement, ZPP and nuclear blackmail Russia has added two points to attempting to raise rates.