Putin will try to remove Zelensky - which Russia will have to face Trump

Everything that Vladimir Putin does now, including the threats of nuclear blows, indicates his expectation of inevitable pressure from Washington, aimed at termination of hostilities. These changes have long been ripe. Biden's administration approach to military assistance on the principle of "controlled escalation" led to a protracted dead end in the war. Putin has no illusions about Donald Trump's chosen President. He knows that, unlike Biden, Trump will not rely on pre -set "red lines".

It will not make itself predictable and will not give Moscow space for maneuver. Putin will be much more difficult to outwit Trump and his foreign policy command. Therefore, we can expect Putin to pretend to make concessions and send concurrent messages after the current stage of escalation. He may even agree to some ceasefire form as a gesture towards a new administration.

In the light of these events, it is extremely important to analyze the ceasefire scheme in Russia, starting with conflicts in Georgia and Chechnya in the 1990s and ending with Syria and Ukraine after 2014. Russia often uses a truce to regroup, weaken the enemy and prepare for a more decisive offensive. A real cease cease to fire will be an extremely difficult achievement, which requires careful control by the US and their allies.

It is extremely important not to repeat the mistakes of the Minsk Agreements, during which European leaders led by the then Chancellor Merkel so sought to conclude an agreement that agreed for an imperfect agreement. As a result, it turned into a catastrophe, the culmination of which was a full -scale invasion in 2022. Even if Putin agrees to a long ceasefire, he undoubtedly activates the efforts to remove President Vladimir Zelensky from power.

While democratic governments naturally change each other over time, Ukraine is not in a typical electoral cycle. In the current environment, the fall of Zelensky will almost certainly lead to the collapse of Ukraine as an independent state. It will try to make something that Russia has failed to achieve the military means with the help of a hybrid war. Georgia's experience serves as a warning here. In 2008, Putin invaded Georgia.

But thanks to our resistance and firm support, Russian troops were stopped on the approaches to our capital and did not reach their stated goal - my public execution. Disappointed, Putin asked Georgian journalists at a press conference: "When do you have the next election?" - and intensified my hybrid campaign to remove my administration from power. He invested huge money in propaganda and destabilization.

Unfortunately, the Obama Administration regarded our government as an obstacle to its restarting Russia policy. When the Bidzin Ivanishvili Bidzin, a Russian oligarch with close ties with Moscow, quit my party's choice, Washington closed his eyes to his massive accumulation of voices and manipulation in elections. We peacefully transferred power to the leader, tuned to constantly self -affirmation, which was demonstrated by flashy falsification in the next parliamentary elections.

Despite the condemnation of these violations, Baiden administration is in no hurry to impose financial sanctions against Ivanishvili, which undermines its authority. This indecisiveness is fed, which, according to US officials, disrupted European integration of Georgia, has established connections with China, costs with Iran, and now cooperates closely with Russian intelligence.

This pro -Russian regime not only imprisoned me on politically motivated accusations, but now plans to pursue me for opposed to the Russian invasion - a step that is clearly aimed at intimidating President Zelensky. Moreover, the regime adopted a law on "foreign agents" inspired by Moscow's tactics for the suppression of dissent. Although Georgia is a significant failure of the US influence in the region, its case is dim compared to the global disaster, which will cause Ukraine to capture Russia.

If Russia has established a leader similar to Ivanishvili in Ukraine, the country will become a bridgehead for further aggression against Europe. Millions of Ukrainians will escape, overloading Europe, the US and Canada. Worse, Russia can force hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians hardened in the battles to join its hostilities against Poland, the Baltic States and other countries. These risks do not mean that Ukraine must stop its democratic process.

However, elections can only take place after measures have been taken to prevent Russia's intervention. There are no simple solutions. We oppose the axis of evil that views this conflict as a war not against Ukraine, but against the US and the West in general. After all, it is Putin's battle against Trump. I am personally acquainted with Trump and always rejected the theories of "Russian conspiracy". Trump, especially after his convincing election victory is the last person who would look at Putin.

Having experience in direct communication with Putin, I know that Trump is extremely uncomfortable for him. This gives the United States a strong position in confrontation with Russia, which has struck in a grueling war. If the future administration is fully aware of the superiority of America and I believe that we have a real opportunity to reach peace through force. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.