Putin prepares a strategic reserve: in ISW ​​told what the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can start a new war

An insider, which is constantly providing accurate reports on changes in the Russian military command, transmitted new information on September 21, saying that the contract signed an average of 7900 recruits per week or 31,600 a month, reports the Institute of War Study (ISW). According to him, some of these recruits join the strategic reserve that Russia has been formed because its losses on the battlefield have decreased, although they remain high.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, from January to July, the losses of the Russian Federation ranged from 32 to 48 thousand a month, which exceeded the number of people whom Russia was able to recruit for the ranks of their army. Instead, in August, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces, the Russian army lost about 29,000 of its soldiers. The first half of September was marked by 13 thousand liquidated or wounded occupiers.

Yes, August and September became the only months when Russia managed to gain more than it lost. "Isw recently estimated that Russia's territorial achievements cost it from May to August 2025 than the spring of 2025, since Russian troops had a lower level of losses on a captured square kilometer. Reduced losses in the summer of 2025, perhaps, convinced the Russian military command. offensive operations on the front line in Ukraine, ”the material reads.

The Russian command changed the tactics of combat, which made it possible to reduce losses. Now Russian troops are attacking in small infantry groups and are increasingly using impregnation tactics when single ones are used through weaknesses and breakage in the insufficiently completed defense of the Ukrainian troops.

Formation of a strategic reserve may indicate that the Russian military command assesses that Russian troops will be able to continue their current pace of offensive, using this tactic of small groups, which allows the Russian command to transfer less personnel to the front line.

The report that Russia is creating a strategic reserve indicate that the Kremlin is not interested in terminating the war against Ukraine, but, as before, it is committed to the achievement of its military goals on the battlefield and may be preparing for conflict with the organization of the North Atlantic Treaty (NATO).

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly nominated the theory of victory, which assumes that Russian troops will be able to endlessly and gradually move forward on the battlefield, which will allow Russia to win the war for exhaustion against Ukraine.

The Institute of War Study reported that the decision to create a strategic reserve and not to send all recruits to the forefront indicates that Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command are satisfied with the current rates of promotion, although Russian troops continue to move only at a foot. The report on the creation of a strategic reserve suggests that Russia plans to escalate offensive operations in Ukraine in the next and medium term and will not end the war.

Russia can also increase its strategic reserve in the wider training of the Kremlin for a possible conflict between Russia and NATO in the future, especially due to the fact that Russia increases its youth military-patriotic programs aimed at involving Russian youth in the army in the coming years. Recall that Russia continues to test NATO air defense over the Baltic Sea, since Russia is increasingly disrupting the airspace of NATO countries.

On September 21, the German Air Force reported that two German Eurofight fighters rose into the air to intercept an unrecognized aircraft without a flight or radio contact plan in the international airspace above Baltic. Later it turned out that it was a Russian reconnaissance aircraft IL-20m. At the same time, on September 19, three Russian MiG-31 fighters entered Estonia's airspace and approached the Tallinn capital, after which the Italian F-35 were raised for their interception.