Logistics problems and millions of losses: why attacks on refinery on the RFE are so important - investigation

Bihus Info journalists tried to find out what the consequences would have for the Russian Federation. It is difficult to understand accurate data on how severe losses were caused by Russian refineries. After all, the Russian Federation does not report accurate information. At best, they report there that the work has been suspended. It can now be said that more than 10 refineries have been attacked in the Russian Federation since the beginning of 2024.

You can talk about the scale if you understand how many refineries are in the Russian Federation. According to the Russian Ministry of Energy, there are 88 oil refineries in the Russian Federation. There are only 38 of them. They process more than 500,000 tons of petroleum products. In 2023, the Russian Federation produced 490 tons of petroleum products. Of these, 280 tons go to oil refineries.

According to energy expert Gennady Ryabtsev, 130 tons of petroleum products are required for the internal consumption of the Russian Federation. Since the beginning of the year, the drones have been attacked by Russian oil objects not only in the border of Rostov or Kursk regions, but also in remote regions - Nizhny Novgorod and Leningrad regions.

For the most part, UAVs are involved in the installation of previous (primary) oil processing, explains Alexander Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center. Without them, further oil processing is impossible. "These are high -tech equipment, installations that process the entire volume used for further processing," Kharchenko says. Interestingly, Russia does not produce these installations. And even if it was produced, then it takes from 9 months to 1. 5 years.

The cost of such installation is $ 90-120. But it should be noted that while Russia has a margin of safety and can compensate for the lost equipment, replacing it whether to process oil in surviving factories. In addition, there may be several similar installations of primary processing in large factories. So at the factory in KSTOV was damaged one of four installations. The plant lost the opportunity to process only part of the oil - six million tons a year, says Ryabtsev.

On the night of March 14 to March 15, three out of four drones were hit in the Kaluga region. It was the fourth successful attack on Russian oil refineries since March 12. The first was the attack on "Lukoil-Nizhzhegorodnefteorgsynthesis", which is located 800 km from the Ukrainian border. March 13 - Drones hit the NPP in Rostov and Ryazan regions. These plants account for more than 12% of Russian oil refining capacity.

On the night of March 17, drones attacked an oil refining plant in Slavyansk-on-Kuban, in the Krasnodar Territory. Interestingly, with every time, Ukrainian drones fly further. The price of AI-95 at the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange on Thursday, March 14, reached the six-year maximum-60 299 rubles per tonne. Winter diesel has risen since the beginning of the year: it now costs 68,946 rubles per tonne. In mid -January, prices were below 60 thousand rubles.

The price of AI-92 gasoline increased by 3. 3% in two days and was at the maximum since November-49 578 rubles per tonne according to the national index. Russia can lose 8-9% of gasoline production. The market situation can be tense unless damaged installations will not be quickly repaired. Three large Russian refineries that have been attacked by Ukrainian drones in the last two days account for about 12% of Russian oil processing capacity.

Thus, the Ryazan oil refinery, which on Wednesday in the morning kissed drones, produces 17. 1 million tons of oil per year and is one of the main suppliers of fuel of the regions near Moscow. One day of a downtime in Ryazan is a lost $ 18 million a day. Video judgments, you can expect a long stop. And the damaged refinery in KSTOV is about $ 16 million lost.

On the example of Novoshakhtyn Refinery, one day of downtime, it is unrecognized: if you remember that this refinery provides the south of the Russian Federation and occupation troops in Ukraine, it can be assumed that the defeat of this plant will hurt the supply of fuel. In two days, the drones damaged plants that provided 12% of oil refineries in the Russian Federation.

But it is too early to expect the "gasoline" signboards at gas stations, but the disruption of the refinery is big logistics problems. This is a change in the production card and the distribution of petroleum products. These are financial loss and demonstration of vulnerability. We will remind, this night in the Russian Federation explosions heard in at least eight regions, in particular in the Moscow region.