Putin's re -election: 5 scenarios for Russia for the next 6 years - Politico

The most likely scenario is the one where Putin will continue to remain in power for the next 6 years. This weekend, Vladimir Putin will win in the next election of the President of Russia and will occupy this post for the next 6 years - until 2030. What it will mean to Russia and the West and what development scenarios are possible after Putin's re -election is said in Politico.

It is noted that the war in Ukraine has helped to make an internal situation in Russia more unstable than it has been in recent decades, and all types of potential future scenarios are no longer unthinkable. Why it can happen: As the anti -communist, anti -colonial revolutions of 1989 showed in Eastern Europe, totalitarian regimes can fall off quickly in the face of democratic movements.

Putin's catastrophic decisions in Ukraine have already led to unpredictable side effects, which will only continue to generate dissatisfaction in the future - and more interest in potential alternatives, including frank democracy. "The murder of Navalny is unlikely to destroy the promocratic energy in the country.

Other protests are still burning in Russia, in particular, organized by soldiers' mothers and wives, now a sudden splash of a democratic momentum in the country is possible," the publication suggests. Why this may not happen: after the leader of Russian democratic expectations in Russia, Alexei Navalny has been destroyed, any chance to unite the Russians into a democratic cause almost certainly died with him, at least in the future.

Why it can happen: against the background of a devastating war, when hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers were killed in a senseless struggle, the Russians came to a mass protest and overthrew an aging, fragile regime. In the end, it happened in Russia in the late 1910s and early 1920s, when the collapse of the royal regime collapsed the Russian Empire. A similar situation was observed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Can it repeat? Maybe not immediately.

But Russia remains a conglomerate of 21 republics, dozens of regions and even more nationalities with countless image in Moscow. The longer the war lasts - and the more these colonized minorities are thrown into Putin meat grinder, destroying a much higher rate than ethnic Russians, the likelihood of such a scenario is increasing. Why this may not happen: many Russian analysts still consider this scenario a far -fetched, given Putin's control over the authorities.

And they are not necessarily mistaken; In addition to Chechnya, there is no clear desire for complete independence, even in those nations that watch their men kill in Ukraine. Recent protests in places such as Dagestan and Bashkortostan, for example, were aimed not only at independence but also for economic and environmental problems. However, to reject this scenario from your hands would be stupid.

Only a spark is needed, and the tinder that Putin has created in a quarter of a century of power can break - the likelihood that only grows with Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine. Why this could happen: a year ago, the head of PEC "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigogin staged a campaign to Moscow. And although the Wagnets have never reached the Russian capital, something was achieved - he made Putin look like a king without clothes.

Of course, Prigogine is gone - after a few months his aircraft exploded in the Russian Federation, killing him and most of his immediate surroundings, which is believed to be Putin's revenge. But all the components that contributed to the rebellion of Prigoine are still present: the frustration of Putin's unsuccessful invasion; continuing deprivation of Russia and material, spiral inequality in wealth. For these reasons, it looks like one of the most likely scenarios for Post -Putin Russia.

The fire of nationalism, ignited by Putin, is unlikely to subside. Why this may not happen: such a scenario is hardly inevitable. Prigogine himself was almost the only one of a kind-a chef who became an oligarch, ready to publicly break with Putin's office and even offend the President himself, creating armed forces covering the whole world from Ukraine to Central Africa.

At the moment, there is no other force that could be compared to Wagner's group, a large part of which was dismantled and subordinated to the state. In addition, Putin is becoming increasingly nationalist as the war is delayed, leaning more and more. Bypassing Putin from the right flank will only become more difficult, especially because he continues to descend into the world of nationalist conspiracies.

Why this can happen: two years have passed after Moscow's unsuccessful invasion of Ukraine, and the impact on Russia is already obvious. And these costs, whether from the point of view of the fall in the economy, or in terms of the spiral amount of goods, will continue to accumulate. That is why the idea that the closest environment of Kremlin officials met with Putin and told him that they value his service and wish him a retired success - is a script that is only growing.

Indeed, there is a certain probability that a new regime will appear in Russia by 2030. The new government will not necessarily be democratic. But it will be headed by a small number of technocratic elites trained in the West, who would start to speak many things that Western officials and businessmen who seek to return to a kind of status quo of pre-war period. They will put a lot of guilt for the war only on Putin, promising a return to normal in Moscow.

They can go so far as to release certain political prisoners and opposition politicians, or even cancel Putin's announcement in 2022 about the annexation of Eastern Ukraine (without Crimea). All this time, they called for something that would welcome many Western politicians: "restart. " Ability to start over. To start again. And to promise new Russia to move forward. Why this may not happen: to snatch control from such a dictator as Putin, you always need more planning, energy and resources.

Putin still holds all the levers of the state-and develops competition among his subordinates who are ready to reveal any anti-Putin conspiracy. Adding the fact that Putin still has widespread support among the Russian official - not least because, given the state of war in Ukraine, Russia can really win - and the hope of overthrowing Khrushchev is hardly a safe rate.

Why this could happen: it has always been the most likely scenario, except for unpredictable health events, and especially given the newly emerged U. S. to support Ukraine, Putin can look at his new presidential term as he would most likely stay completely and possibly even further. And it is clear. With the death of Navalny Democratic opposition in Ruin. The Russian economy, despite the flurry of Western sanctions, has almost fallen, even if it became sluggish.

Although Putin did not conquer Kiev, the worst in the Ukrainian war, perhaps, is still ahead, especially given the US undesiration to equip Ukraine. And compared to US presidents, Putin is only 71 years old. Why this may not happen: Putin's control over the authorities still seems strong, but there are many factors that will make him the next term much different and perhaps much more complicated than everything he has seen before.

While Putin managed to overcome sanctions against Russia, the economy as a whole is clearly heading for stagnation and rising inflation. "The main thing is to admit that as long as Putin remains in power, the unprovoked war of Russia in Ukraine will continue, with threats to a much wider war.