Putin's Shah: How Kremlin loses the resource war

For example, German Chancellor Olaf Scholt has publicly stated that Germany was ready for future restrictions on Russian gas supplies. Similar statements have found their reinforcements in specific actions: Scholz, along with his Spanish colleague, gave the start to increase the capacity of connecting the Iberian Peninsula to the united EU gas network.

After the implementation of this plan, approximately 30% of the need for European consumers in natural gas can be covered with a network of Spanish and Portuguese LNG-terminals. Such an agenda of the information space had a positive impact on the expectations of European traders, thereby dismantling fears that were caused by the influence of Russian propaganda.

Therefore, despite the stopping of the North Stream-1 and other inadequate statements of the Kremlin, quotes on Habbi TTF (Netherlands) decreased by more than 22% and reached $ 2,300 per thousand cubic meters of gas. Also noteworthy is the fact that despite the stopping of Russian gas to the French market, quotations in the trade zone of that country decreased by 38% to $ 1400 per thousand cubic meters.

It all points out that the European gas market has quickly increased its immunity to Russian provocations and economic diversion. Therefore, all the "forecasts" of the Russian gas monopolist Gasprom on the spot quotations of blue fuel at $ 4000 per thousand cubic meters-were part of the information and psychological special operation of the aggressor.

At the same time, a similar "predictive" statement is now being spread by the Kremlin for Brent oil quotes, which allegedly grow to $ 200 per barrel after G7 countries have imposed price limit (Price-Kop) into Russian oil. In fact, such statements of the aggressor are another soap bubble and an element of information pressure, since Brent is one of the three benchmarks of oil, and Russian Urals or ESPO is an ordinary variety.

Therefore, if the G7 countries (more than 32% of global demand) impose a price restriction on one of 23 oil varieties, it will not lead to quotations. Because the price signal goes from the reference brand to the variety, not the other way around. Moreover, the rise in price can occur in the case of physical shortage of resource, that is, limiting the price of the variety will only reduce the cost by increasing the fight for consumers who want to buy oil with discount.

Obviously, in the Russian Federation they understand this and therefore try to create a shortage of oil in the global market for maximum impact on the quotation of reference marks of oil and, accordingly, the formation of the most favorable price restriction. Unfortunately, the official Ankara, who, according to the Turkish edition of Sabah, helps in this Russians - since October has increased five times the transport fees for the passage of oil tankers through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles.

Thus, the structure of oil value transported by tankers from the Black Sea will increase. Currently, the Turkish government has not provided official comments, so the emergence of such information can be regarded as an element of studying the G7 response. At the same time, two incidents that happened in one day (September 1) look rather strange and led to blocking navigation on the most important maritime routes.

The first case occurred with the Lady Zehma vessel, which transported grain from Ukraine and sat on a shallow, blocking the navigation in the Bosphorus Strait. At the same time, the tanker under the flag of Singapore also sat on a shallow and blocked other vessels passage through the Suez Canal. As a result, Brent oil reference rods increased by 2% to $ 93. 8 a barrel.

It is appropriate to remind the case of an annual prescription when the container of Ever Given sat on the shallows in the Suez Canal, stopping the passage for 24 oil tankers. As a result, Brent quotes then increased by 7% to $ 65 per barrel, and the Russian Federation used the incident to lobby the so -called Northern Marine Way as opposed to the Suez Canal.

Therefore, it is possible that the current incidents with blocking of navigation have arisen artificially, for example, in order to enhance the Kremlin threats of the civilized world, voiced by Putin by Dmitry Medvedev. Let the movement of vessels and tankers have been restored, gas prices in the EU are gradually reduced, and the introduction of price restrictions on Russian oil and petroleum products have been introduced since December 2022.