The shadow fleet of the Russian Federation continues to bypass the sanctions: what does it mean to Ukraine

Russia continues to make money for sales of oil through a shadow tanker fleet, which for the third year in a row, plays a key role in supporting the export potential of the aggressor country against the background of international sanctions and support of war in Ukraine. It provides a third of income, actively affects the global oil market and creates environmental risks. And even expanding sanctions against it, in particular, Britain does not give rise to optimism.

The focus analyzed the situation. The other day, the United Kingdom has imposed sanctions against 30 Russian shadow fleet tankers, which transport oil and oil products for billions of pounds, which was reported by the British government. Such a sanctional package is the largest country against the shadow fleet of the Russian Federation. Also, the insurance companies "Alfasting" and "UK", which provide it, were under the restrictive measures.

The United Kingdom has imposed sanctions against 30 tankers of the Russian Fleet, which transport oil and oil products by billions of pounds in the VB government, emphasized that oil revenues were an important source of financing the illegal war of the Russian Federation in Ukraine. The shadow fleet also poses significant risks to world trade.

Many vessels use deceptive ways of navigation and pose a danger to the environment - many tankers openly ignore basic safety standards, which increases the likelihood of catastrophic oil spills. However, according to energy equir Andrian Prokip, such steps of the Ukrainian country of Ukraine can not be called powerful. "First, the number of sanctions on which the sanctions are imposed on the market.

Second, even under sanctions, tankers can continue to deliver Russian oil and earn billions of oil dollar. These sanctions do not affect Suders that move directly between Russian ports and buyers who do not support sanctions, such as China and India. to Europe, "Prokip wrote. A shadow fleet is a system of several tankers that use to avoid international sanctions imposed on countries or companies exporting oil and petroleum products.

These vessels belong to anonymous structures registered in the countries such as Panama, Liberia, Malta, Marshall Islands and Gabon. With the beginning of the full -scale war of Russia against Ukraine in 2022 and the introduction of sanctions by the US, EU and G7, the Kremlin borrowed the methodology of dark and shadow fleet according to the classification ) Both gray and dark fleet belong.

With the beginning of the full -scale war of Russia against Ukraine in 2022 and the introduction of sanctions from the US, EU and G7, the Kremlin borrowed a methodology of dark and shadow fleet with disconnection of identifiers (AIS - automatic identification of the vessel, which makes it invisible for tracking), forgery oil, transfusion of cargo in the high seas, which allows to hide the source of oil, as well as falsification of routes.

Ukrainian political scientist, chairman of the Board of the Center for Applied Political Studies "Penta" Vladimir Fesenko adds that it is a whole set of means of bypassing the sanctions that Russia formed during the war. And a shadow tanker fleet is just a tool for achieving a goal.

In addition to oil revenues, Russians actively use so -called unofficial reserves - funds that their state -owned banks and state -owned companies and oligarchy have taken out of the Russian Federation "There are other different ways, forms of cooperation and bypassing sanctions. For example, restarting oil, mixing Russian oil with oil of other origin . In December 2022, the price ceiling at $ 60 at the barrel of Russian oil, which was transported by the sea, began to operate.

Initially, the tool worked, but the Kremlin set a task to fight against Ukraine for exhaustion, so he began to buy old tankers. By March 2023, their shadow fleet numbered about 600 vessels. And every month it increased by 25-30 tankers.

Economist, ex-Member of the NBU Council Vitaliy Shapran adds that in addition to oil income, the Russians actively use the so-called unofficial reserves-the funds that their state-owned banks and state-owned companies and oligarchy have been taken out of the Russian Federation. "According to my estimates, they are no less than those that are now immobilized in the West.

While the world community led by Ukraine start hunting for these funds, I think Putin will continue to finance the war for 2-3 years," the ex- focus explained NBU Council Member Vitaliy Shapran. Also, in his opinion, the Russian shadow fleet is a problem not only in Ukraine but also the environmental safety of the whole region, since as a rule, the Russian Federation buys or charters in this fleet old tankers, whose accidents can cause significant losses.

About 30% of all Russian oil exports are made through a shadow fleet. This is equivalent to 1. 4 million barrels of oil a day. In 2023, only at the expense of the shadow fleet, Russia received more than $ 6 billion income. Currently, the shadow fleet transports about 10% of all Russian oil.

Many shadow vessels do not have reliable insurance, which makes them potentially dangerous to the environment, while many shadow vessels do not have reliable insurance, which makes them potentially dangerous for the environment. In the case of oil spill, the responsibility for eliminating the consequences can lie down to the countries through whose waters they pass. And this was already happening.

"Therefore, the country of the EU, India, Turkey and the Middle East should increase the requirements for insurance of these tankers and carefully check the policies in the ports of transit and purpose. This issue is not well -known now," Shapran added. The tanker fleet is mostly designed for offshore operators, and India is the main buyer of Russian oil outside the EU. Volodymyr Fesenko supplemented this list with countries such as China, Morocco, Turkey.

"There are whole hubs where there is a restart, oil mixing, as well as hubs through which the shadow tanker fleet works. Russian oil enters Europe through intermediaries or through Turkey, Morocco," Fesenko explained. While the shadow fleet of the Russian Federation is increasing despite the efforts of Western allies to influence it, the aggressor has suffered a difficult situation with currency.

After all, the Russian ruble, which has been rapidly losing positions on the dollar and the euro in recent days, has already overcome the "psychologically important mark" of 100 rubles for the dollar. Meanwhile, Russian authorities do not intend to restrain him. On November 27, the Central Bank set a course at 105. 06, and on November 29 - 109. 57 rubles for the US dollar. And in banking applications, the dollar can buy much more expensive.

"The cessation of trading in the currencies of unfriendly countries in the stock market has led to a change in the methods of determining the central bank of dollar and euros," some Russian experts said, commenting on the situation. In the future, the course in the Russian Federation can cross 120 rubles for a dollar. However, unfortunately, this is unlikely to reflect on the real economy of the Russian Federation and the wallets of the Russians.

Ukrainian experts say that the ruble that is falling may once be drawn to the bottom of the Russian economy, but now the devaluation, on the contrary, allows the Kremlin to earn, to finance the war against Ukraine and does not affect the active life of the shadow fleet. "The devaluation of the ruble is made to make exporters from the Russian Federation feel a little better than they now suffer from sanctions.