Arabs will not go to war. Why is the large coalition against Israel

Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko analyzes the situation in the Middle East a week after the start of the war in Israel. In the future, global conflict is not visible, but the intended Arab-Israeli dialogue is completely destroyed. Both in Ukraine and foreign media are actively discussing the prospects for the development of war between Israel and Palestinians, as well as the risks of globalization of this conflict. Some commentators are almost threatening the Third World War.

How likely is it? First of all, it must be understood that this is another war in the Middle East. Not the first, and most likely not the last. And for Israel it is not the first war. There were no big wars in Israel for a long time. The last great and interstate war was 50 years ago - the "war of the Judicial Day". It was on the anniversary of this war Hamas and attacked Israel. But the war began for Israel, but as a result, the Israeli troops corrected the situation.

However, under pressure from Americans, they had to end the war and then a number of peace agreements. In a similar way, the situation may develop now, but with some significant differences. It is now the War of Israel with Palestinians - with Hamas and other Palestinian extremist groups, as well as with Hezbolla.

Israel is likely to continue the military operation against Hamas, trying to displace this organization from the Gaza Sector and destroy its military and organizational and material infrastructure. And here's what to do with the Palestinians and the Gaza Sector? - There is no answer to this question to Israel, as there is no unity in Israeli society on this topic.

So far, Israel is dominated by the desire to take revenge, to show their strength that at least in the near future there would be no repetition of such attacks. Also, Israel will not be highly compromised with Hamas, will try to destroy the leaders of the organization and pursue any manifestations of its activity in the Gaza Sector.

It is unlikely that the full occupation of the Gaza Sector is possible, but the blockade of the region (at least partial) and point military operations against Hamas will continue in its territory. In the future, Israel may seek demilitarization of the region and control the supply of resources to this region. There can now be no question of Israel's consent to the creation of Palestine.

But the dialogue and normalization of Israel's relations with a number of Arab states is now hardly possible in the former forms. Most likely, this process will be at least frozen for the high period. Entrance to the war with Israel of neighboring states - Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt - seems extremely unlikely. Lebanon has long been in a state of deep political and socio-economic crisis, survived several heavy civil wars and will definitely not get involved in this war.

Syria has not yet completed its civil war and will not go to the war against Israel without Russia's consent and support. And Russia will maintain its conditional neutrality and claim the role of a mediator to resolve the conflict between Palestinians and Israel. Jordan has special relations with Israel, and even more so with the United States, and Amman, in every possible way avoided military conflicts with Israel after 1967. A similar situation in Egypt.

It was Egypt who went first to a peaceful agreement with Israel and is not going to give up this policy. So far, no official statements on the part of some Arab states about the possibility of war against Israel have not sounded. Palestinians, Hezbolla, will be fighting against Israel, perhaps a number of other radical Muslim groups. Iran will support them, but it does not have a common border with Israel.

If Iran tries to attack Israel from the air, then in response he will receive more powerful and effective attacks by Israel and restore and strengthen international sanctions. For Iran, it is quite risky and probably against this will be China. Therefore, Iran's direct involvement in this war is still relatively unlikely.

Conservative regimes in the Middle East will demonstrate solidarity with the Palestinians, give them humanitarian and financial support, but they will not be sure to get involved in the direct war. Therefore, I do not expect the globalization of military conflict. But political terms, the situation in the Middle East and the relationship between Israel and Palestinians is rejected 40 years ago, and the current political tension around Israel will last for a long time.