The Russian Federation opens the way to Zaporozhye: how the fall of two villages changed the situation at the front

  Russian occupation forces captured the villages of Rivnopillia and Yablukove of the Pologiv district of the Zaporizhia region, continuing to put pressure on the positions of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. This was reported by analysts of the DeepState project, updating the map of hostilities. Currently, these settlements are marked with a red zone, which indicates the complete transfer of control to the enemy.

According to experts, the occupiers have also advanced near Volodymyrivka, Kotlyny and Dachny. At the same time, Ukrainian defenders successfully repelled attacks near the village of Shakhove, Pokrovsky district, Donetsk region. The capture of Rivnopilla opens up operational space for Russian forces to advance on Gulyaipole from the north. However, as analysts emphasize, the occupiers currently lack resources for an immediate attack on this city.

In its latest report, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the activity of the enemy in the Gulyaipil direction: Russian aircraft struck Varvarivka and Zeleny Gay. On November 11, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, announced the capture by Russian troops of three settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region.

On the same day, volunteer and public figure Serhiy Sternenko warned that the Russian Armed Forces could sharply accelerate their offensive in Zaporozhye. The situation at the front remains tense, with the enemy trying to exploit any gaps in the defense, while the Defense Forces continue to hold back the advance and inflict losses on the enemy. The further development of events will depend on the timely strengthening of Ukrainian positions and logistical support.

The coordinator of the "Information Resistance" group, Kostiantyn Mashovets, says that the Russian offensive in the Eastern Zaporizhzhya region, which is also called Gulyaipilske, is being led by the "Vostok" military group, formed on the basis of the Eastern Military District of the Russian Federation. It includes four combined armies (29th, 35th, 36th and 5th) and the 68th Army Corps.

Geographically, it is the junction of the Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk regions — from Oleksandropol (Donetsk region) to Gulyaipol (Zaporizka region). Thus, up to 9 brigades and regiments, including one tank brigade, were deployed on a section of the front with a width of up to 41 km. In addition, 5-6 regiment-battalion-level formations from territorial troops or the mobilization reserve operate in the bands of the 5th and 36th combined arms armies.

There is a possibility of the involvement of units of the 41st Combined Arms Army (the "Center" Air Force Base) or the 98th Airborne Division (regrouped from the "South" Air Force Base), although there is no confirmation yet. Estimates of the number and armament of the "Vostok" military aircraft in open sources differ significantly.

According to Mashovets, the group can have from 85 to 120 thousand personnel, 260-325 tanks, 420-720 armored vehicles, up to 350-620 units of barrel artillery and 150-210 MLRS installations. According to the expert, the Russians continue to press in several areas. Units of the 37th Brigade from the 36th Army are trying to develop success near Novosilka and advance north through Vovcha to bypass Oleksandropil, but attacks from Voskresenka were repulsed by Ukrainian forces.

In the area between Vovcha and Yanchur, the assault groups, probably of the 57th or 60th brigades, entered the Novooleksandrivka–Oleksiivka line and entrenched themselves east of Yehorivka; at the same time, adjacent units of the 5th and 36th Armies advanced in the direction of Yehorivka–Danylivka.

On the offensive line of the 5th Army, the enemy operates with a wide front: the forces of the 127th motorized rifle division, reinforced by the 69th and 38th brigades, forced Yanchur in several places, captured Uspenivka on the western bank and reached the Solodke-Rivnopil line. An advance of 1–1. 5 km is also recorded in the directions Gulyaipole–Velika Novosilka and Malynivka–Zeleny Gai.

"Thus, it can be stated that during the last 2 weeks, units and formations of the enemy's 5th Combined Arms Army managed to achieve significant tactical success - they quickly forded the Yanchur River, seized a tactical bridgehead on its western bank in the Uspenivka area and, developing their offensive further, advanced to the west at a distance of up to 7 km," Mashovets notes. Military expert Oleg Zhdanov points out that events here are developing very badly for the Defense Forces.

According to him, the crisis worsened after the fall of positions in Vugledar, where Ukrainian forces suffered losses. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi responded with personnel changes, dismissing two corps commanders responsible for the direction. "But it didn't help today," Zhdanov tells Fokus, stressing that the waste continues to save personnel.

According to the expert, the Russian forces act according to patterns, identifying weak points in the defense of the Armed Forces and throwing all their forces there for a breakthrough. Having discovered a gap in the defense, the occupiers have achieved partial success and are now doing everything to develop it. According to Mashovets, the situation in this direction has become unfavorable for the Armed Forces.

The enemy accelerates, effectively building up front-line efforts and quickly entrenching assault groups. The advantage in forces and means in the lane of the 5th combined army allows him to do this. Operational objective of the enemy: According to Zhdanov, Russian troops are encircling Gulyaipol. The enemy is turning to the west and north-west, breaking through to cut off the logistics of Ukrainian troops.

Now they began to turn to the west with the aim of encircling Gulyaipol and capturing the territory of the Zaporizhzhia region. In addition, the Russians are trying to advance to Oleksandrivske, a strategic settlement on the operational direction, which poses a threat to the entire flank. "The situation is getting worse, but it will take time to completely capture Gulyaipol - months of preparation with rear strikes.

Without reserves, the situation cannot be corrected: I said a week or two ago that defending Pokrovsk, you cannot lose Zaporizhzhia. And such a threatening situation is developing in Zaporizhzhia," the expert emphasized. We will remind that the Russian troops intensified their assaults, trying to bypass the Ukrainian fortifications of the Zaporizhia region through the Dnipropetrovsk region.